Global Political Risk Ratings: U.S. Upgraded Amid Tight Presidential Race

NEW YORK — September 16, 2024 — Morning Consult today launched its Global Political Risk Ratings, a new high-frequency measure of political risk in 36 major markets around the globe based on thousands of  daily survey interviews. 

In the inaugural edition, the U.S. has been upgraded from B+ to BB- on the back of President Joe Biden’s July withdrawal from the presidential contest and Vice President Kamala Harris’ ascendancy to the top of the Democratic ticket, which drove improvements in the survey metrics underlying the ratings.

“Our forward ratings outlook for the United States — covering the next six months — is cautiously positive, with uncertainty arising from the tight nature of the presidential contest, which we expect to persist through election day,” Jason McMann, head of Morning Consult’s Political Intelligence unit writes.

The risk ratings are narrowly defined to reflect the degree of public support for incumbent governments, and are intended to facilitate corporate scenario planning efforts, portfolio allocation and rebalancing, and investment decision-making, including serving as political inputs into sovereign credit ratings models.

Additional key takeaways:

• Nigeria Downgraded: Morning Consult has downgraded Nigeria’s rating from B- to CCC+ due to a worsening risk environment linked to ongoing protests. Our forward outlook for Nigeria is negative with medium certainty. While President Tinubu’s honeymoon period coincided with the highest recent rating for Nigeria of BBB- in June 2023, the rating has moved steadily downwards since then.
• Downside Watches: Elsewhere, Morning Consult’s ratings reveal downside risk across a swath of emerging and frontier markets, including Indonesia, Mexico and Thailand — all of which have seen or are slated for chief executive transitions in 2024. Amid Mexico’s contentious judicial reforms, our forward outlook remains stable owing to expected policy and party continuity through the October 2024 presidential transition, albeit with lingering downside potential from expanded protests surrounding the reforms.

See here for Morning Consult’s latest ratings across all 36 markets (subscription required, contact [email protected] for access). The latest ratings reflect data collected through Aug. 31, 2024 and will be updated on a monthly cadence, with higher frequency daily ratings data available for enterprise use.

If you would like a free, complimentary media account to Morning Consult Pro to access our Global Political Risk Ratings, contact us at [email protected].

Methodology: Morning Consult’s Political Risk Ratings are constructed using standardized, survey-derived risk metrics. All survey data used to produce the ratings was collected through Morning Consult’s proprietary survey research capabilities. All survey interviews are conducted online. Data is weighted to approximate representative samples of adults in each country. Weighting parameters and target populations vary by country.

Consult our Risk Ratings Definitions and Methodology Primer for additional details.

Consult our Global Political Intelligence Methodology Primer for supplementary details on the underlying survey data, including sampling and data collection procedures, weighting and representativeness, margins of error, and question wording.

Requested Citation: Please credit Morning Consult in any coverage and link back here.  

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Contact: Anna Rose Pardue, [email protected]