Morning Consult Political Risk Ratings
Data Downloads
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Overview
Morning Consult's Global Political Risk Ratings provide high-frequency, survey-derived risk ratings for 36 global markets on a monthly basis. Risk ratings are narrowly defined to reflect the degree of public support for incumbent governments, and are intended to facilitate corporate scenario planning efforts, portfolio allocation and rebalancing, and investment decision-making, including by serving as political inputs into sovereign credit ratings models.
Updated risk ratings and the corresponding data used to produce them publish during the first half of each month, along with companion market commentary covering risk ratings, ratings action (upgrades and downgrades), ratings watches, and related confidence metrics.
See below for the latest ratings, ratings action and watches, and risk profiles by market group. The latest edition of our Market Commentary & Risk Outlook (MACRO) Political Briefing, six months of prior briefings, machine-readable ratings data, and a companion Ratings Definitions & Methodology Primer and publication calendar can be accessed via Data Downloads below. See here for a companion research note outlining private and public sector use cases and the comparative advantages afforded by our ratings.
Higher-frequency daily risk data beyond that presented here is available for commercial use via Morning Consult Intelligence, including via API. Please contact us for details.
Latest Ratings Action & Watches
Ratings Action:
- Upgrades: Chile (from B+ to BB-)
- Downgrades: Spain (from BB- to B+)
Ratings Watches:
- Upside: India (from A- to A), Japan (from B to B+), Malaysia (from BBB to BBB+), South Africa (from BB- to BB), Thailand (from BB to BB+)
- Downside: Argentina (from BBB+ to BBB), Canada (from B+ to B), Indonesia (from A to A-), Peru (from CCC+ to CCC), United Kingdom (from BB to BB-)
Macro Outlook:
- Global average risk readings continue to trend downward M/M (reflecting greater risk) across both core and extended market sets and are hovering near tracking lows.
- Regionally, APAC continues to see the most favorable average risk profile, while MENA performs the worst. Europe is meanwhile coming down from a near-term Q3 high supported by an improving U.K. risk profile following Keir Starmer's inauguration; as of October 2024, however, pressure on Starmer's administration is now weighing on European risk, dragging down both regional and G7 performance.
- We expect Ishiba's inauguration as Japan's latest prime minister to play to the upside over the near-term, potentially offsetting the aforementioned downtrend in G7 risk in the months to come, assuming the Liberal Democratic Party performs well in late October elections.
See the latest MACRO (Market Commentary & Risk Outlook) Political Briefing under "Data Downloads" above for our assessment of ratings drivers, forward outlooks, and scenarios and sensitivities for key markets.
Consolidated Risk Outlook
The table below provides risk ratings and m/m risk trajectories for all rated markets, alongside indications of ratings actions and watches through the latest available complete month of data.
Global Average Risk Profiles
Morning Consult has tracked political risk continuously in a set of 10 “core” rated markets since January 1, 2019, and in a broader set of 36 “extended” rated markets since January 1, 2022 (including those in the core set). See the table below for a complete list of rated markets in each group. The subsequent figures report average risk readings across both groups of markets.
Rated markets by group
Global average risk readings: core markets
Global average risk readings: extended markets
Regional Average Risk Profiles
Regional risk profiles reflect simple averages of risk readings in our “extended” set of rated markets. Regional average data is available from January 1, 2022 onwards. Data availability for some markets extends beyond the stipulated window. See table below for a complete list of rated markets in each group. The subsequent figure reports simple average risk readings by region.
Rated markets by region
Regional average risk readings
Emerging/Frontier & Developed Market Risk Profiles
Emerging/frontier and developed market risk profiles reflect simple averages of risk readings in our “extended” set of rated markets. Average data is available from January 1, 2022 onwards. Data availability for some markets extends beyond the stipulated window. See table below for a complete list of rated markets in each group. The subsequent figure reports simple average risk readings by market group.
Rated markets by group
Emerging/frontier and developed market average risk readings
G7 & G20 Risk Profiles
G7 & G20 risk profiles reflect simple averages of risk readings in our “extended” set of rated markets. Average G7 data is available from June 1, 2020 onwards. Average G20 data is available from January 1, 2022 onwards. Data availability for some markets extends beyond the stipulated window. See table below for a complete list of rated markets in each group. The subsequent figure reports simple average risk readings by market group.
Rated markets by group
G7 and G20 average risk readings
Summary Table: Rated Markets by Group
The following table provides a list of all rated markets covered by Morning Consult’s Political Risk Ratings, sorted by market group.
Rated markets by group (all markets)
Companion Data, Research & Charting Assets
- Trended Risk Ratings and Readings Data: All data featured in this tracker is available for Morning Consult Pro+ subscribers via the “Data Downloads” section of this page. See “Commercial Data Access” below for additional details on access to higher frequency risk ratings and readings data beyond that presented in this tracker.
- MACRO (Market Commentary & Risk Outlook) Political Briefing: Morning Consult's MACRO Political Briefing provides analytical commentary and forward risk outlooks for rated markets subject to ratings action, and select commentary for those subject to ratings watches. The MACRO Political Briefing publishes monthly, and serves as Morning Consult's flagship recurring analysis of political risk globally. The latest release can be downloaded via the "Data Downloads" section of this page.
- Chart Pack: A companion monthly chart pack showing trended risk ratings and readings for all markets featured in this tracker is available for Morning Consult Pro subscribers via the “Data Downloads” section of this page.
- Counter/Consensus Email Briefing: Morning Consult Counter/Consensus is a biweekly, publicly available briefing that provides pithy, empirically-grounded forecasts derived from our political data assets, and periodically leverages data from Morning Consult's Political Risk Ratings.
High-Frequency Data Access
All data used to produce Morning Consult’s Political Risk Ratings derives from Morning Consult Political Intelligence — our flagship commercial data product measuring political attitudes in 43 countries on a daily basis. Daily risk ratings are available for Morning Consult Intelligence clients, including via API, facilitating higher-frequency assessments of political risk globally and systematic applications of our ratings data. Contact us with inquiries regarding commercial access.
Methodology Overview: Key Terminology
- Risk Readings: Morning Consult’s political risk readings are measured as the simple intra-month average of (1) net approval of the incumbent chief executive and (2) net country trajectory, defined as the net share of adults in each market who say their country is headed in the right direction. Higher values correspond to lower risk.
- Risk Ratings: Risk “ratings” reflect countries’ assignment into ordinal bands ranging from AAA (the highest rating, reflecting the lowest risk level) to U (the lowest rating, reflecting the highest risk level) based on their risk readings. Ratings of BBB- or higher, commonly used to denote the cutoff for investment grade markets and/or assets, correspond to risk readings above zero in Morning Consult data, reflecting net-positive public sentiment.
- Ratings Action: Indicates whether a market has experienced a ratings “Upgrade” or “Downgrade,” defined as a transition from a lower (higher) ratings band to a higher (lower) band.
- Ratings Watch: Indicates whether a market has been assigned an “Upside” or “Downside” watch, defined as a transition from one ratings notch to another within the same band, denoting markets whose risk profiles are worth monitoring but which are not currently subject to ratings action.
- Risk Trajectory: Indicates whether a country’s underlying risk readings are improving, worsening, or stable month-on-month, corresponding to a “positive,” “negative,” or “stable” trajectory.
- Trajectory Confidence: Indicates the statistical confidence in a given country’s risk trajectory as a function of the latest month-on-month change in risk.
Consult our Ratings Definitions and Methodology Primer for additional details, including more detailed information on ratings scales, and related confidence and volatility metrics.
LEGAL DISCLAIMER
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Detailed Methodology
Morning Consult’s Political Risk Ratings are constructed using standardized, survey-derived risk metrics. All survey data used to produce the ratings was collected through Morning Consult’s proprietary survey research capabilities. All survey interviews are conducted online. Data is weighted to approximate representative samples of adults in each country. Weighting parameters and target populations vary by country.
Consult our Risk Ratings Definitions and Methodology Primer for additional ratings details. Consult our Global Political Intelligence Methodology Primer for supplementary details on the underlying survey data, including sampling and data collection procedures, weighting and representativeness, margins of error, and question wording.
About Morning Consult
Morning Consult is a global decision intelligence company changing how modern leaders make smarter, faster, better decisions. The company pairs its proprietary high-frequency data with applied artificial intelligence to better inform decisions on what people think and how they will act. Learn more at morningconsult.com.
Email [email protected] to speak with a member of the Morning Consult team.
Jason I. McMann leads geopolitical risk analysis at Morning Consult. He leverages the company’s high-frequency survey data to advise clients on how to integrate geopolitical risk into their decision-making. Jason previously served as head of analytics at GeoQuant (now part of Fitch Solutions). He holds a Ph.D. from Princeton University’s Politics Department. Follow him on Twitter @jimcmann. Interested in connecting with Jason to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
Sonnet Frisbie is the deputy head of political intelligence and leads Morning Consult’s geopolitical risk offering for Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Prior to joining Morning Consult, Sonnet spent over a decade at the U.S. State Department specializing in issues at the intersection of economics, commerce and political risk in Iraq, Central Europe and sub-Saharan Africa. She holds an MPP from the University of Chicago.
Follow her on Twitter @sonnetfrisbie. Interested in connecting with Sonnet to discuss her analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].