Support for Trump Surges After Second GOP Debate
Key Takeaways
63% of potential Republican primary voters support Donald Trump for the GOP’s 2024 presidential nomination, up from 58% in our survey released Monday ahead of the latest primary debate.
Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who faced heated attacks on stage from rivals such as former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, saw his support drop by 2 percentage points (as did Haley), though that movement was within the survey’s margin of error.
The sizable shift from Monday to Thursday is notable compared with what happened after the first Republican debate in August, when our Thursday post-debate survey found no significant change in the GOP electorate’s views.
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Former President Donald Trump’s support in the Republican presidential primary has reached a record high, according to our tracking of the contest, after his rivals squared off in a chaotic second GOP debate.
Trump Gains, Others Fall After Second GOP Debate
Our survey, conducted Sept. 28, found that 63% of potential Republican primary voters support Trump for the GOP’s 2024 presidential nomination, up from 58% in a Morning Consult survey released Monday ahead of the matchup. Trump’s improvement appears to have come from across the spectrum of challengers, but most notably from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, whose backing fell from 15% to 12%.
Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who faced heated attacks on stage from rivals such as former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, saw his support drop by 2 percentage points (as did Haley), though that movement was within the survey’s margin of error.
This is daily data: We survey thousands of U.S. voters every day, producing exclusive daily tracking among thousands of Republican primary voters ahead of Election Day.
Understand true impact in real time: Other, more traditional polls with smaller sample sizes may look noisy or show jumps in support. Our dedication to high-frequency survey research means larger sample sizes of voters and demographics, with more consistency and more stability. Daily data matters.
The latest survey reflects one day of data compared with the data points in our 2024 GOP primary tracker data, which uses a three-day rolling average. Notably, Trump’s improvement by the one-day metric tracks with movement we’re seeing in the three-day surveys, meaning some of the upward trajectory in his support came before the Sept. 27 debate.
However, the sizable shift from Monday to Thursday is notable compared with what happened after the first Republican debate in August, when the Thursday survey found no significant change in the GOP electorate’s views.
The bottom line
This data reinforces our view that Trump is in the driver’s seat of the Republican primary, and that Trump-less debates aren’t having much of an impact on the other candidates’ national support, and may in fact be helping the former president. It also suggests that the fragmentation of the field continues to harm efforts to stop Trump’s march to the 2024 nomination in Milwaukee next year.
Eli Yokley is Morning Consult’s U.S. politics analyst. Eli joined Morning Consult in 2016 from Roll Call, where he reported on House and Senate campaigns after five years of covering state-level politics in the Show Me State while studying at the University of Missouri in Columbia, including contributions to The New York Times, Politico and The Daily Beast. Follow him on Twitter @eyokley. Interested in connecting with Eli to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
