Secondary Tariff Impacts: How Supply Chain Snarls Filter Through to Consumers

Relative to the dramatic spike in COVID-era supply chain pressures that peaked in 2021–when a slew of factors, including global shortages, excess income from stimulus checks and a reallocation of spending from services to goods combined to create a perfect storm of disruption, current conditions appear relatively mild. The New York Federal Reserve’s Global Supply Chain Pressures Index stood at 0.19 in May, compared with the historical peak of 4.44 in December 2021. Within the U.S., domestic retailers (excluding auto dealers and parts suppliers) have held steady so far in 2025 with an inventory-to-sales ratio of 1.14, up from a low of 1.05 in March 2021.

However, both of these metrics have come up from their respective 2023 lows over the past year or so, setting the stage for less wiggle room when it comes to adapting supply chains in reaction to or anticipation of tariffs. The GSCPI had dropped as low as -1.56 in May 2023, and US retailers’ inventory-to-sales ratio remains considerably below its pre-pandemic norm, when the measure typically drifted above 1.20. 

While both of these metrics track supply tightness from sellers' perspective, Morning Consult’s data completes the picture by simultaneously tracking the consumer experience. This memo explores how these unique metrics relate to those on the supplier side and what the recent upward trend might mean for the future price outlook.

Consumers tend to pick up on global supply chain pressures

Consumers notice supply chain tightness, but not necessarily right away. It takes time for bottlenecks impacting the flow of goods to work their way to consumers. When consumers purchase for-sale inventory in stores from retailers, supply chain dynamics occurring then won’t have much effect on those purchases; the goods in question have already completed their journey. However, as retailers seek to restock or place orders for the next season, shortages or disruptions on the supply side can slow the pace of inventory replenishment, potentially leading to backorders or shipment delays. 

For the end consumers, low stock may initially show up as slower deliveries for goods ordered online. Morning Consult’s data supports this theory: The Delivery Delays index, which tracks whether goods ordered online are arriving slower or faster, highly correlates with the GSCPI, with the strongest correlation (.90) occurring with a two-month lag. This finding indicates that it takes about two months for consumers to most acutely feel the impacts of supply chain disruptions, based on slower goods deliveries. 

Slower deliveries can be a leading indicator of shortages and sticker shock

The next step in the progression of supply chain disruptions’ impact on consumers, should the issues continue to escalate past delivery delays, is in-store shortages. Morning Consult’s data tracks the difficulty of procuring items–often attributable to shortages–through the Purchasing Difficulty index. Similar to Delivery Delays’ lagged relationship with global supply chain pressures, the Purchasing Difficulty index is most highly correlated with slower deliveries, with a lag of several months. In times of supply disruption, consumers will take longer to see in-store shortages than delivery delays. This makes intuitive sense, as sellers may prefer to prioritize in-store inventory. If faced with low stock, sellers might risk slower deliveries of online orders (potentially inciting some consumer dissatisfaction, but ultimately still completing the sale) than have empty shelves in stores (resulting in a total loss of sale for a customer seeking to buy the unavailable product). 

Price pressures are naturally tied to shortages, as was observed acutely in 2021 and 2022 when both empty shelves and soaring price tags afflicted a slew of consumer products. Morning Consult’s Price Surprise index for goods categories is highly correlated (.90) with the Purchasing Difficulty index for goods, and both measures are also closely aligned with inflation.

“Double whammy” for inflation?

In summary, Morning Consult’s indexes track consumers’ experience with supply chains, which helps connect the dots between global supply chain pressures and the actual impact on prices and purchases. As supply chain pressures heat up, consumers’ first experience will be delivery delays, followed by more difficulty finding items in stores and, simultaneously or subsequently, rising prices. These relationships help illuminate how the secondary impact of tariffs–supply chain disruption from changes, administrative burdens, and general uncertainty–can yield higher costs for businesses and consumers beyond just the taxed amount from the tariff itself. 

As of May 2025, Purchasing Difficulty and Price Surprise remained relatively low, nowhere near the highs registered in 2022. However, the Delivery Delays index–the early warning sign for supply disruptions–has already been picking up, climbing into positive territory (signifying more deliveries are getting slower than faster) for only the second time since January 2023. Based on historical relationships, this signal from the Delivery Delays index may be a precursor to supply tightness in stores and the price hikes consumers have been bracing for, whether or not the full spectrum of potential tariffs comes to fruition. At the same time, and despite the recent and ongoing tariff whiplash, none of the indicators discussed here have approached COVID-era levels so far in 2025. Stabilization or de-escalation of trade policy announcements from here on out may be enough to avert a pronounced supply crunch.