Tim Walz Is Off to a Nice Start as Kamala Harris’ Running Mate

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Most Americans had never heard of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz before he became the Democratic vice presidential candidate last week, but Morning Consult trend data suggests he’s making a fairly solid first impression.

Surveys conducted the weekend before and after Vice President Kamala Harris announced Walz as her running mate show the Minnesota governor’s favorability spiked from 18% to 38% as his unfavorables rose from 11% to 33%, leaving his net favorability rating 5 percentage points above water, slightly superior to Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance’s net rating of -1 at the same point of his own rollout.

Most of that movement fell along predictable partisan lines as Walz’s name recognition virtually doubled from 43% to 85%.

The biggest jumps in Walz’s favorability rating came among the groups you’d expect: Democrats (from 30% to 68%) and liberals (from 34% to 72%). But there was also sizable movement in the right direction among some other groups that campaign operatives on both sides of the aisle are keying on.

Walz’s net favorability rating increased from 10 points to 21 points among Black voters and from 4 points to 23 points among Hispanic voters. His net rating ticked up from 5 points to 16 points among self-identified moderates and from 4 points to 12 points among the youngest eligible voters, ages 18-34.

At the same time, the early evidence suggests Walz will struggle to make inroads with conservatives and those who voted for Donald Trump in 2020 (the vast majority of whom look likely to do so again in November, according to our daily tracking of the race). 

The merits of Walz’s selection as VP has been a subject of debate, both outside and within the Democratic Party. As Republicans try to peg the governor as a radical leftist, pointing to his record of liberal policy victories during his second term in office, some Democratic strategists have questioned the wisdom of recruiting a running mate who, as our own data shows, currently has a limited appeal at best with more conservative voters despite his years representing a congressional district that Trump ultimately won in 2016.

Those debates aren’t likely to go away any time soon, but one thing is clear: The reception to the Walz rollout looks very positive compared to the Republicans’ own efforts with Vance.

While only 26% of voters say they’re dissatisfied with Walz’s selection as VP candidate, 48% say they’re dissatisfied with Vance’s selection. Walz’s advantage on the question is driven by independents, women, moderates, voters of color, and younger voters. 

Walz also satisfies more voters on his own side of the aisle than Vance, and among white voters on either side of the college diploma divide — a key fracture in modern politics — he performs better than Vance. Though 45% of white voters without a degree are dissatisfied with Walz’s selection, 57% of college-educated whites say the same of Vance’s.

What it means for 2024

Historically speaking, running mates tend to have a negligible impact on presidential election outcomes, but increasing partisan polarization has made extremely close elections the norm. That means VP picks are perhaps more important — as well as scrutinized and debated — than they’ve ever been. 

Walz isn’t off to an incredible start, but unlike his opponent on the other side, it hasn’t been a disaster. However, there’s still plenty of time for Walz to struggle in the news cycle, as Vance has. After all, our survey conducted after the Republican National Convention in July, at a similar point in Vance’s own VP rollout as Walz is at now, found 43% of voters were satisfied with the selection of the first-term Ohio senator, compared with only 35% at present. 

Given the divisive nature of U.S. politics, remaining a few points above water is likely the best Walz can hope for. But that would be considerably better than Vance’s current standing (34% favorable, 47% unfavorable), and would be an asset in November.