Tracking the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
Latest surveys conducted Dec. 1-3, 2023, among a representative sample of 5,800 registered voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-1 percentage point.
Ahead of the 2024 presidential election, Morning Consult is conducting thousands of surveys every day, asking registered U.S. voters whom they plan to vote for in 2024’s likely rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, as well as how they view these candidates and other top political figures. Our ongoing candidate tracking is complemented by daily tracking of the issues voters consider most important when making their decisions at the ballot box, whom they trust most to handle those issues and the extent to which media coverage of those issues is reaching them.
Every week, we’ll update this page with the latest tracking data on all of the major questions heading into the 2024 general election. For our ongoing tracking of the Republican nominating contest, go to our 2024 Republican Primary Tracker.
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Key Takeaways
Biden and Trump are tied: Biden and Trump, the likeliest Republican presidential nominee for 2024, are knotted up at 43% a piece in our latest national tracking survey. That’s compared with Biden’s 1-percentage-point lead from our last weekly update. A sizable 10% of voters said they would vote for another candidate if the 2024 election were held today, while 4% are undecided.
Buzz about the Middle East improves: As Israel and Hamas exchanged hostages and prisoners last week during a now-ended cease-fire, net buzz about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict — the share of voters who heard something positive minus the share who heard something negative about it — climbed to a record high minus 29 points since war erupted in early October. That’s compared with minus 46 points around mid-November.
The top issues for 2024: The issue portfolio for next year’s elections echoes that of the 2022 midterm elections. The economy is voters’ top issue, followed by national security and the safeguarding of Social Security and Medicare. Hot-button issues such as immigration, crime and abortion occupy similar places in voters’ minds as in 2022.
Tracking 2024 Presidential Vote Choice Over Time
Data points reflect a 3-day moving average of surveys conducted among representative samples of at least 4,000 registered U.S. voters, with unweighted margins of +/-1 to 2 percentage points.
- Biden’s lead over Trump has declined over time, especially since the summer as the Republican presidential primary has heated up.
- Roughly 1 in 10 voters have consistently said they would back a third-party candidate if the election were today, an exceptionally high number that reflects Americans’ dissatisfaction with their probable choices next year.
Tracking Politicians’ Popularity
Latest survey conducted Dec. 1-3, 2023, among 2,002 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Net favorability is the share of potential voters with favorable views minus the share with unfavorable views.
- Biden has also seen his popularity edge over Trump wane since the GOP’s nominating contest picked up steam several months ago. Trump is now slightly more popular than Biden.
- For most of the year, Democrats in Congress have managed to maintain a consistent, albeit small, edge in popularity over their Republican counterparts.
Tracking the Buzz About Politicians
Latest survey conducted Dec. 1-3, 2023, among 2,002 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Net buzz is the share of voters who heard something positive minus the share who heard something negative.
- Biden and Trump are dominating the national conversation, with an overwhelming majority of voters having heard something about each figure on a weekly basis. Most of the time, what they’re hearing is more likely to be negative than positive.
- Fewer voters said they’ve heard about members of Congress, though once again, it’s the GOP that tends to generate more negative coverage.
Tracking 2024’s Top Issues
Latest survey conducted Dec. 1-3, 2023, among 2,002 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points.
- The economy remains voters’ top issue for the 2024 elections, though the share who said it’s “very important” in deciding their vote has dropped over the past year.
Tracking the Buzz About 2024’s Top Issues
Latest survey conducted Dec. 1-3, 2023, among 2,002 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Net buzz is the share of voters who heard something positive minus the share who heard something negative.
- The tenor of media coverage about the economy, jobs, abortion and crime has improved, albeit unevenly, over the course of 2023.
- Meanwhile, the tone of coverage about immigration has remained negative throughout the year.
Congressional Trust on Handling of 2024's Top Issues
Latest survey conducted Dec. 1-3, 2023, among 2,002 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. Numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
- Similar to the run-up to the 2022 midterms, Republicans are more favored than Democrats to handle the economy, national security and immigration. Democrats maintain their sizable trust advantage on abortion, and voters are divided over whom they trust more to protect against threats to U.S. democracy.
Source of This Data
Methodology
The latest national results on the hypothetical general-election matchup of President Joe Biden and Donald Trump reflects surveys conducted Dec. 1-3, 2023, among a representative sample of 5,800 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-1 percentage point.
Voters who are undecided were not asked to pick which candidate they are leaning toward.
Morning Consult’s reported results on questions pertaining to candidate favorability and buzz, issue prioritization and buzz, and congressional issue trust reflect data gathered on a weekly basis among a representative sample of roughly 2,000 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. For more information on our 2024 methodology, see here.
About Morning Consult
Morning Consult is a global decision intelligence company changing how modern leaders make smarter, faster, better decisions. The company pairs its proprietary high-frequency data with applied artificial intelligence to better inform decisions on what people think and how they will act. Learn more at morningconsult.com.
Cameron Easley is Morning Consult’s lead analyst for U.S. politics. Prior to moving into his current role, he led Morning Consult's editorial coverage of U.S. politics and elections from 2016 through 2022. Cameron joined Morning Consult from Roll Call, where he was managing editor. He graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Follow him on Twitter @cameron_easley. Interested in connecting with Cameron to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
