Tracking the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
Latest surveys conducted July 22-24, 2024, among a representative sample of 11,297 registered voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-1 percentage point.
Ahead of the 2024 presidential election, Morning Consult is conducting thousands of surveys every day, asking registered U.S. voters if they plan to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump in November, as well as how they view these candidates and other top political figures. Our ongoing candidate tracking is complemented by daily tracking of the issues voters consider most important when making their decisions at the ballot box, whom they trust most to handle those issues and the extent to which media coverage of those issues is reaching them.
Every week, we’ll update this page with the latest tracking data on all of the major questions heading into the 2024 general election.
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Key Takeaways
Harris leads Trump: In our first daily tracking survey conducted fully after President Joe Biden announced he will no longer seek re-election, Harris leads Trump, 46% to 45%. Her level of support at the start of her campaign exceeds the highest level of support we gauged for Biden since tracking began in late 2022, with fewer voters now indicating they’ll vote third party.
Harris unites Democrats: Nearly 2 in 3 Democratic voters support Harris to replace Biden at the top of the ticket, more than double the 30% who said the same late last month following Biden’s concerning debate performance. Democratic voters are also more likely than Republicans (27% to 24%) to say they’re “much more motivated” to participate in the political process this election season following Biden’s decision.
Vance gets MAGA popularity boost from convention: Sen. JD Vance’s elevation as Trump’s vice presidential running mate did tremendous work to elevate awareness of him among the American electorate, especially among the former president’s 2020 base. The share of Trump’s 2020 voters with favorable opinions of Vance nearly doubled, from 38% to 66%, when comparing surveys before and after the Republican National Convention.
ICYMI: We broke down a lot of this data — as well as our latest quarterly tracking of gubernatorial and senatorial approval, featuring some of Harris’ potential VP picks — during a webinar after Biden’s announcement. Watch for yourself here.
Data Downloads
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Tracking 2024 Presidential Vote Choice Over Time
Data points reflect a three-day moving average of surveys conducted among representative samples of at least 4,000 registered U.S. voters, with unweighted margins of +/-1 to 2 percentage points.
- Harris begins her campaign with 46% support, more than Biden has received from the national electorate for the duration of our 2024 tracking.
- Harris’ entry into he race appears to have reduced the appetite for a protest vote: Fewer voters say they are uncertain about their vote or planning to opt for someone else with her on the ballot.
Tracking Politicians' Popularity
Latest survey conducted July 19-21, 2024, among a representative sample of 2,201 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Net favorability is the share of potential voters with favorable views minus the share with unfavorable views.
- Sentiment about Harris tracks closely with Biden’s, though she’s often slightly more popular than her boss. The picture is a bit more murky when compared with Trump, but views about Harris appeal to be more fluid than the well-known former president.
- For most of this election cycle, Democrats in Congress have managed to maintain a consistent edge in popularity over their Republican counterparts.
Tracking the Buzz About Politicians
Latest survey conducted July 19-21, 2024, among a representative sample of 2,201 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Net buzz is the share of voters who heard something positive minus the share who heard something negative.
- The kind of information voters hear about Harris has consistently tracked with what they’re hearing about Biden. The exception to that trend is the post-debate period, when Biden’s buzz turned overwhelmingly negative before he ended his campaign.
- Fewer voters said they’ve heard about members of Congress, though once again, it’s the GOP that tends to generate more negative coverage.
Tracking 2024’s Top Issues
Latest survey conducted July 19-21, 2024, among a representative sample of 2,201 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points.
- The economy remains voters’ top issue for the 2024 elections. And though the share who said it’s “very important” in deciding their vote dropped during much of 2023, the economy’s salience has ticked back up in recent months.
Tracking the Buzz About 2024's Top Issues
Latest survey conducted July 19-21, 2024, among a representative sample of 2,201 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Net buzz is the share of voters who heard something positive minus the share who heard something negative.
- The tenor of media coverage about the economy, jobs, and crime have improved, albeit unevenly, over the course of this election cycle.
- Meanwhile, the tone of coverage about immigration has remained overwhelmingly negative as illegal crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border have persisted.
Congressional Trust on Handling of 2024's Top Issues
Latest survey conducted July 19-21, 2024, among a representative sample of 2,201 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. Numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
- Similar to the run-up to the 2022 midterms, Republicans are more favored than Democrats to handle the economy, national security and immigration. Democrats maintain their trust advantages on health care, entitlement programs, climate change and abortion.
Source of This Data
Methodology
The latest national results on the general-election matchup of Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump reflect surveys conducted July 22-24, 2024, among a representative sample of 11,297 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-1 percentage point.
Voters who are undecided were not asked to pick which candidate they are leaning toward.
Morning Consult’s reported results on questions pertaining to candidate favorability and buzz, issue prioritization and buzz, and congressional issue trust reflect data gathered on a weekly basis among a representative sample of roughly 2,000 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. For more information on our 2024 methodology, see here.
About Morning Consult
Morning Consult is a global decision intelligence company changing how modern leaders make smarter, faster, better decisions. The company pairs its proprietary high-frequency data with applied artificial intelligence to better inform decisions on what people think and how they will act. Learn more at morningconsult.com.
Cameron Easley is Morning Consult’s lead analyst for U.S. politics. Prior to moving into his current role, he led Morning Consult's editorial coverage of U.S. politics and elections from 2016 through 2022. Cameron joined Morning Consult from Roll Call, where he was managing editor. He graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Follow him on Twitter @cameron_easley. Interested in connecting with Cameron to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
Eli Yokley is Morning Consult’s U.S. politics analyst. Eli joined Morning Consult in 2016 from Roll Call, where he reported on House and Senate campaigns after five years of covering state-level politics in the Show Me State while studying at the University of Missouri in Columbia, including contributions to The New York Times, Politico and The Daily Beast. Follow him on Twitter @eyokley. Interested in connecting with Eli to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
