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Updated on May 20, 2024
Updates weekly

Tracking the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

Trump leads Biden
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Whom registered U.S. voters said they would vote for if the 2024 U.S. presidential election were held today

Latest surveys conducted May 17-19, 2024, among a representative sample of 10,172 registered voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-1 percentage point.

 

Ahead of the 2024 presidential election, Morning Consult is conducting thousands of surveys every day, asking registered U.S. voters whom they plan to vote for in 2024’s rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, as well as how they view these candidates and other top political figures. Our ongoing candidate tracking is complemented by daily tracking of the issues voters consider most important when making their decisions at the ballot box, whom they trust most to handle those issues and the extent to which media coverage of those issues is reaching them.

Every week, we’ll update this page with the latest tracking data on all of the major questions heading into the 2024 general election. 

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Key Takeaways

  • Trump leads Biden: Trump leads Biden by 1 percentage point in our latest tracking, 44% to 43%, matching last week’s data. The race remains closer than before Super Tuesday, when Trump consistently led. Trump performs slightly better with Republicans and his own 2020 backers than Biden does with Democrats and his 2020 supporters. 

  • Trump buzz worsens: Since the weekend after Super Tuesday, when Trump’s net buzz rating tied a record high for the 2024 cycle, voters increasingly say they’re hearing negative things about the former president. The latest survey found Trump’s net buzz rating 33 points underwater, compared with -19 points in a survey that finished fielding on March 11. By comparison, Biden’s net buzz rating this week is -8 points, 5 points worse than his rating after Super Tuesday.

  • Biden maintains popularity edge: This is the third successive week in which Biden’s net favorability rating has bettered Trump’s — the longest such stretch since April 2023.

  • Immigration salience a key change since 2022: The issue portfolio for the November elections largely echoes that of the 2022 midterms. The economy is voters’ top issue, followed by national security and health care — and hot-button issues such as crime and abortion occupy similar places in voters’ minds as in 2022. But it’s a different story with regard to immigration. More than 3 in 5 voters (64%) now say it’s “very important” to their vote in November, compared with 50% who said it was very important to their vote in November 2022.

Data Downloads

Morning Consult Pro+ subscribers are able to access the data sets that power Morning Consult Pro's reports and analysis. Learn more and get access.

Toplines, Weekly Tracker
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PDF toplines covering weekly data featured in this tracker among registered voters
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Crosstabs, Weekly Tracker
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PDF crosstabs covering weekly data featured in this tracker among registered voters and various sub-demographics
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Banner Tables, Weekly Tracker
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Sortable XLS banner tables covering weekly data featured in this tracker among registered voters and various sub-demographics
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XLSX, Trended Head-to-Heads
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A trended, sortable CSV data file covering historical daily data on hypothetical head-to-heads between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump
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A brief overview of what datasets are included in Morning Consult Pro+
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Tracking 2024 presidential vote choice over time

Share of voters who said they would vote for the following if the 2024 presidential election were held today:
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Data points reflect a three-day moving average of surveys conducted among representative samples of at least 4,000 registered U.S. voters, with unweighted margins of +/-1 to 2 percentage points.

  • While Biden led Trump for most of 2023, Trump began making up ground last summer as the Republican presidential primary heated up. The presumptive GOP nominee consistently led Biden during the first two months of 2024, but the race has narrowed to a dead heat since Trump effectively secured the Republican nomination.
  • Nearly 1 in 10 voters say they would back a third-party candidate if the election were today.

Tracking politicians’ popularity

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Latest survey conducted May 17-19, 2024, among a representative sample of 2,201 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Net favorability is the share of potential voters with favorable views minus the share with unfavorable views.

 

  • Biden saw his popularity edge over Trump wane following early 2023, though both major party contenders are more unpopular than popular with the U.S. electorate.  
  • For most of this election cycle, Democrats in Congress have managed to maintain a consistent edge in popularity over their Republican counterparts.

Tracking the buzz about politicians

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Latest survey conducted May 17-19, 2024, among a representative sample of 2,201 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Net buzz is the share of voters who heard something positive minus the share who heard something negative.

  • Biden and Trump are dominating the national conversation, with an overwhelming majority of voters having heard something about each figure on a weekly basis. Typically, voters are slightly less likely to report hearing negative news about Biden than Trump.
  • Fewer voters said they’ve heard about members of Congress, though once again, it’s the GOP that tends to generate more negative coverage.

Tracking 2024’s top issues

Share of U.S. voters who said the following issues are “very important” when deciding whom to vote for in the 2024 elections:
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Latest survey conducted May 17-19, 2024, among a representative sample of 2,201 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points.

  • The economy remains voters’ top issue for the 2024 elections. And though the share who said it’s “very important” in deciding their vote dropped during much of 2023, the economy’s salience has ticked back up in recent months.

Tracking the buzz about 2024’s top issues

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Latest survey conducted May 17-19, 2024, among a representative sample of 2,201 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Net buzz is the share of voters who heard something positive minus the share who heard something negative.

  • The tenor of media coverage about the economy, jobs, and crime have improved, albeit unevenly, over the course of this election cycle.
  • Meanwhile, the tone of coverage about immigration has remained overwhelmingly negative as illegal crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border have persisted.

Congressional trust on handling of 2024's top issues

Share of U.S. voters who trust congressional Democrats or Republicans more to handle the following issues:
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Latest survey conducted May 17-19, 2024, among a representative sample of 2,201 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. Numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

  • Similar to the run-up to the 2022 midterms, Republicans are more favored than Democrats to handle the economy, national security and immigration. Democrats maintain their trust advantages on health care, entitlement programs, climate change and abortion. Voters are more divided over whom they trust more to protect against threats to U.S. democracy.

Source of This Data

Methodology

The latest national results on the general-election matchup of President Joe Biden and Donald Trump reflect surveys conducted May 17-19, 2024, among a representative sample of 10,172 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-1 percentage point.

Voters who are undecided were not asked to pick which candidate they are leaning toward.

Morning Consult’s reported results on questions pertaining to candidate favorability and buzz, issue prioritization and buzz, and congressional issue trust reflect data gathered on a weekly basis among a representative sample of roughly 2,000 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. For more information on our 2024 methodology, see here.

About Morning Consult

Morning Consult is a global decision intelligence company changing how modern leaders make smarter, faster, better decisions. The company pairs its proprietary high-frequency data with applied artificial intelligence to better inform decisions on what people think and how they will act. Learn more at morningconsult.com.

Cameron Easley
Lead U.S. Politics Analyst

Cameron Easley is Morning Consult’s lead analyst for U.S. politics. Prior to moving into his current role, he led Morning Consult's editorial coverage of U.S. politics and elections from 2016 through 2022. Cameron joined Morning Consult from Roll Call, where he was managing editor. He graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Follow him on Twitter @cameron_easley. Interested in connecting with Cameron to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].

Eli Yokley
U.S. Politics Analyst

Eli Yokley is Morning Consult’s U.S. politics analyst. Eli joined Morning Consult in 2016 from Roll Call, where he reported on House and Senate campaigns after five years of covering state-level politics in the Show Me State while studying at the University of Missouri in Columbia, including contributions to The New York Times, Politico and The Daily Beast. Follow him on Twitter @eyokley. Interested in connecting with Eli to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].