It’s Trump’s Economy Now, Voters Say

President Donald Trump has tried to blame his predecessor, President Joe Biden, for any bad economic news — especially inflation. But as Trump hits the two-month mark of his term, that messaging has lost credibility with the bulk of the electorate. 

In a reversal from last month, more voters than not now say current economic conditions are mostly the result of Trump’s policies instead of Biden’s.

That shift comes as Democrats and independents increasingly see Trump as responsible for the economy, while GOP voters have moved the other way. Compared with our February survey, the share of Republicans who said Biden’s policies are mostly responsible for current economic conditions increased, while fewer say it’s Trump’s.

Last month, Trump was already getting more credit (or blame) from the electorate than when he inherited Barack Obama’s economy in his first term. But that was before a month of stock market slides related to his tariffs that was capped by his refusal to rule out an American recession, as well as continued inflation — most famously related to the price of eggs.

Like he has with broader inflation, Trump has also tried to blame Biden for egg prices as they hit an all-time high in February. The White House has worked to push back on Americans’ concerns about rising egg prices, leaning on declining wholesale prices for distributors.

But those wholesale prices haven’t resulted in lower prices at the store, and Americans are noticing.

Our economists found the highest price surprise category for consumers is groceries. More specifically, consumers believe rightfully that the cost of eggs has risen, and if they blame a politician for the problem, they’re more likely to say Trump has had a major impact than Biden (39% to 30%).

The bottom line

Trump’s messaging attempt to blame Biden may be working among the Republican base, but not with the wider electorate. 

Our ongoing tracking of voter sentiment on the Republican-controlled government shows Trump’s approval rating has fallen underwater, driven in part by women, lower earners and non-Republicans — the same groups who are turning on his tariff policies in particular as well as his larger economic and trade approaches.

As he gets further into his term, the Biden blame game is unlikely to find more attentive ears. While politicians might be able to get away with blaming the former president in the short term, nobody should question whether Republicans will have to answer for the Trump economy — good and bad — come next November.