logo

Trump Is Trouncing Haley in South Carolina, the Super Tuesday States and Beyond

Trump is lapping Haley 68%-31% among primary voters in the Palmetto State, and it only gets worse for her from there
Getty Images / Morning Consult artwork by Natalie White
February 07, 2024 at 5:00 am UTC
Downloads (1)

See the latest national surveys on the November presidential election on our 2024 U.S. Presidential Election tracker.

Republican presidential candidate and former Gov. Nikki Haley is vowing to continue her campaign against front-runner Donald Trump at least through the Super Tuesday contests in early March, but state-level Morning Consult surveys suggest that’s a fool’s errand.

According to the latest tracking of the GOP nomination race in 23 states, including Haley’s home state of South Carolina, Trump is lapping his competition across the board. The Jan. 23-Feb. 4 surveys, which were conducted after Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis ended his campaign and endorsed Trump, suggest the former president already has at least one hand — and maybe two — on the party’s nomination.

Trump Leads Haley by 37 Points in South Carolina

Potential Republican primary voters in South Carolina said whom they would vote for if the nominating contest were held in their state today
Morning Consult Logo
Survey conducted Jan. 23-Feb. 4, 2024, among an unweighted sample of 414 registered voters in South Carolina who said they plan to vote in the state’s upcoming GOP presidential primary, with unweighted margins of error of +/-5 percentage points.

Let’s start with South Carolina, where Trump leads Haley 68% to 31% among potential Republican primary voters, which includes any registered voter in the state who said they plan to vote in the state’s upcoming Feb. 24 Republican primary. It’s a gap far outside the survey’s margin of error of 5 percentage points, and suggests Haley is heading toward a shellacking in her own backyard.

Unfortunately for Haley, our data suggests things will only get worse as she heads toward Super Tuesday on March 5, when conservatives in many states across the country look primed to head to the polls and deliver a resounding victory for Trump.

Trump Has Huge Leads in Every Major Super Tuesday State

Potential Republican primary voters said whom they would vote for if the nominating contest were held in their state today
Morning Consult Logo
Survey conducted Jan. 23-Feb. 4, 2024, among an unweighted sample of at least 208 registered voters in each state who said they plan to vote in their state’s upcoming GOP presidential primary, with unweighted margins of error of +/-3 to 7 percentage points.

Of the Super Tuesday states we’re tracking, Haley looks best-positioned to garner support in Massachusetts and North Carolina, at 28% and 23%. But it appears inconceivable that she would score a victory even there: Trump leads her by 41 points in the Bay State among potential GOP primary voters, and by an even larger 54-point margin in the Tar Heel State.

It’s a familiar refrain in states located further down the calendar for the Republican nomination race. From Arizona to Wisconsin — with Florida, Georgia and Ohio in between — at least three-quarters of potential Republican primary voters in each state say they plan to vote for Trump in their state’s nominating contest.

Trump Has Supermajority Backing in the Major States After Super Tuesday

Potential Republican primary voters said whom they would vote for if the nominating contest were held in their state today
Morning Consult Logo
Survey conducted Jan. 23-Feb. 4, 2024, among an unweighted sample of at least 230 registered voters in each state who said they plan to vote in their state’s upcoming nominating contest, with unweighted margins of error of +/-3 to 7 percentage points.

What it means for 2024

The wealthy Republican donors who continue to bankroll Haley’s campaign appear to be just as well off setting their cash on fire. The only thing left to do in this race is count the votes, which are sure to show Trump with a lot compared to Haley’s relatively few.

For more information on how we collected this data, including sampling, weighting and representativeness and question wording, consult our 2024 Republican Primary Methodology Review.

A headshot photograph of Cameron Easley
Cameron Easley
Lead U.S. Politics Analyst

Cameron Easley is Morning Consult’s lead analyst for U.S. politics. Prior to moving into his current role, he led Morning Consult's editorial coverage of U.S. politics and elections from 2016 through 2022. Cameron joined Morning Consult from Roll Call, where he was managing editor. He graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Follow him on Twitter @cameron_easley. Interested in connecting with Cameron to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].

We want to hear from you. Reach out to this author or your Morning Consult team with any questions or comments.Contact Us