U.S. Politics
2024 U.S. Election Watch Report | December 2023
Report summary
The 2024 U.S. elections are shaping up to be another monumental moment in America’s modern history, and Morning Consult’s high-frequency tracking capabilities will provide political observers with an essential source of public opinion data to help them keep a finger on the pulse of the nation.
On a daily and weekly basis, Morning Consult Political Intelligence surveys thousands of registered U.S. voters on how they view their politicians at the national and state level and whom they currently plan to vote for. We also track the issues voters consider most important when making their decisions at the ballot box, whom they trust most to handle those issues and the extent to which media coverage of those issues is reaching them.
Each month, the 2024 U.S. Election Watch report will provide a comprehensive look at what the U.S. electorate thinks about the major issues and personalities around next year’s contests, including the prospective general election matchup between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, and how potential shifts in issue importance may favor either party next November.
Key Takeaways
- Trump’s lead in the Republican presidential race keeps growing: Donald Trump’s monthly share of support among potential GOP primary voters nationwide is at 65%, a tracking high. He also has large leads in most early and Super Tuesday nominating states.
- Trump now leads Biden, fueled by gains among key voter segments including Black, Hispanic and young Americans: The former president took his first monthly lead of the 2024 election cycle over President Joe Biden in November. He now leads Biden among 18- to 34-year-olds, and Biden continues to lose support among Black and Hispanic voters. Trump also maintains a narrow edge among independents.
- These voters tend to believe Biden is too old to be president: With the exception of Black voters, who similarly view each of their likely choices for 2024 as too old for the job, these voter groups are far more likely to say Biden is too old than Trump.
- As buzz about the economy has improved, its salience for 2024 has dipped: With the so-called soft landing increasingly in sight, it’s worth noting that the economy’s importance for voters’ 2024 decision has ticked down in 2023 as they have reported hearing more positive news about the economy. And though more voters trust Trump than Biden on the economy, views of the current president’s handling of it have shown signs of improvement this year.
- What it means for the presidential race: With voters still reeling from sticker shock on goods and services caused by inflation, Biden’s and Trump’s chances in November will likely hinge on whether the economy and Biden’s age remain as important to voters as they appear now.
Methodology
All national-level data presented in this report reflects monthly roll-ups of views among registered voters derived from two sources: (1) interviews from Morning Consult’s daily U.S. tracking survey and (2) weekly interviews from a nationally representative survey on the 2024 U.S. elections and the Republican presidential primary. Data on approval ratings for President Joe Biden derives from the former source; all other data presented in this report derives from the latter source.
All state-level data represents trailing three-month averages of monthly roll-ups derived from Morning Consult’s daily U.S. tracking survey.
Consult our 2024 Republican Primary Methodology and 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Methodology primers for additional details on both data sources, including sampling and data collection procedures, weighting and representativeness, margins of error and question wording.
About the author
Cameron Easley is Morning Consult’s lead analyst for U.S. politics. Prior to moving into his current role, he led Morning Consult's editorial coverage of U.S. politics and elections from 2016 through 2022. Cameron joined Morning Consult from Roll Call, where he was managing editor. He graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Follow him on Twitter @cameron_easley. Interested in connecting with Cameron to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
