U.S. Politics
2024 State-Level Republican Primary Polling
Report summary
Since December 2022, Morning Consult has been surveying potential Republican primary voters across the country every day, asking them whom they’d vote for if the GOP presidential nominating contest were held in their state today.
With the official start of the Republican presidential race set to begin in January 2024, this report provides a detailed look at how the leading Republican presidential candidates are performing in 26 states across the country, and how support for their bids has shifted from month to month since we began tracking the race.
States covered in this report include Iowa, Nevada and South Carolina, which hold three of the country’s first four nominating contests, a slew of Super Tuesday contests that are typically decisive in the race for the nomination, and key states further down the Republican primary calendar that are also expected to play a pivotal role in the November 2024 general election.
Methodology
The data in this report comes from surveys conducted Dec. 1, 2022, through Nov. 30, 2023, among more than 300,000 potential Republican primary voters across all 26 states.
Our sample of potential Republican primary voters includes any registered voter who said they plan to vote in the Republican presidential primary or caucus in their state in 2024. Potential Republican primary voters who initially said they did not know or had no opinion about which candidate they would vote for were asked to pick one they’re leaning toward. Results reflecting each candidate’s 2024 Republican primary support include the responses from these “leaners.”
Unweighted sample sizes of potential Republican primary voters vary for each state, from 181 in Iowa in December 2022 to 3,344 in Florida in July 2023. Unweighted margins of error vary by state, ranging from +/-2 to +/-7 percentage points.
While this report only reflects support for candidates who are still in the race and regularly polling above 5%, Morning Consult has also tracked support at the state level for a much larger list of previously declared or potential candidates including Tim Scott, Mike Pence, Glenn Youngkin, Greg Abbott, Kristi Noem, Mike Pompeo, Liz Cheney, Will Hurd and Francis Suarez. Unweighted and weighted sample sizes and data on state-level support in each month for every person we have tracked since December 2022 can be found in the methodology section of the report.
Consult our 2024 Republican Primary Methodology Review for additional details on the underlying data sources, including sampling and data collection procedures, weighting and representativeness, margins of error, and question wording.
About the author
Cameron Easley is Morning Consult’s lead analyst for U.S. politics. Prior to moving into his current role, he led Morning Consult's editorial coverage of U.S. politics and elections from 2016 through 2022. Cameron joined Morning Consult from Roll Call, where he was managing editor. He graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Follow him on Twitter @cameron_easley. Interested in connecting with Cameron to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
