Global Politics
Geopolitical Risk in 2025: Mid-Year Update Report
Report summary
Heading into H2 2025, the geopolitical headwinds facing global business leaders have hardly been more pronounced. Alongside persistent economic uncertainty linked to the Trump administration’s on-again off-again tariff war and strained U.S.-China relations, companies must also contend with no less than three major military conflicts: the Russia-Ukraine war, the Israel-Hamas war, and most recently, the Iran conflict.
To that end, this mid-year update to the 2025 edition of our flagship Year Ahead in Geopolitical Risk report provides updated insights and forecasts for major geopolitical developments over 2025/YTD, all through the lens of potential risks facing U.S. brands and multinationals.
Consult the full report for our updated mid-year forecasts and related guidance on:
- The global threat landscape
- Domestic political stability
- Global consumer confidence
- U.S. reputational concerns
- Overseas boycott risks for U.S. brands
- The future of the U.S. trade war
- "Made in America" and reshoring viability
- The trajectory of trans-Atlantic relations
- Iran tensions and risks for U.S. brands
- Artificial intelligence adoption
Methodology
Sampling and data collection
This report relies on data collected through Morning Consult’s proprietary survey research capabilities, including from Morning Consult Political Intelligence, a product offering access to daily trended data on political attitudes in 43 countries. Consult our Global Political Intelligence Methodology Primer for additional details on sampling and data collection procedures, weighting and representativeness, margins of error, and question wording. The remaining data featured in this report derives from a combination of recurring and stand-alone surveys. Sample sizes and margins of error for those surveys are indicated in the methodology statements accompanying each page.
Weighting and population targets
All data featured in this report is weighted to approximate representative samples of either adults or voters in each of the indicated countries. Target populations are the adult (18+) or registered voter populations of the United States, the adult literate population in Brazil, and the adult internet-using population of all other countries.
About the authors
Jason I. McMann leads geopolitical risk analysis at Morning Consult. He leverages the company’s high-frequency survey data to advise clients on how to integrate geopolitical risk into their decision-making. Jason previously served as head of analytics at GeoQuant (now part of Fitch Solutions). He holds a Ph.D. from Princeton University’s Politics Department. Follow him on Twitter @jimcmann. Interested in connecting with Jason to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
Sonnet Frisbie is the deputy head of political intelligence and leads Morning Consult’s geopolitical risk offering for Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Prior to joining Morning Consult, Sonnet spent over a decade at the U.S. State Department specializing in issues at the intersection of economics, commerce and political risk in Iraq, Central Europe and sub-Saharan Africa. She holds an MPP from the University of Chicago.
Follow her on Twitter @sonnetfrisbie. Interested in connecting with Sonnet to discuss her analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
