Global Politics
The Year Ahead in Geopolitical Risk: 2025 Report
Report summary
Morning Consult’s annual Year Ahead in Geopolitical Risk report offers a concise global risk outlook along with 10 key charts and data-driven insights to guide multinationals, market actors and policymakers through the risks and opportunities that lie ahead in 2025. Consult the full report for our forecasts on global trade policy, U.S.-China relations, trans-Atlantic relations, the war in Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas war, and more.
Topical coverage and forecasts include:
- Global macro political outlook
- Global political instability
- U.S. reputation and soft power
- U.S. foreign policy
- Trade war redux
- U.S.-E.U. relations
- U.S.-China relations
- Asia-Pacific conflict outlook
- Middle East conflict outlook
- Europe conflict outlook
Methodology
Sampling and data collection
This report relies on data collected through Morning Consult’s proprietary survey research capabilities, including from Morning Consult Political Intelligence, a product offering access to daily trended data on political attitudes in 43 countries. Consult our Global Political Intelligence Methodology Primer for additional details on sampling and data collection procedures, weighting and representativeness, margins of error, and question wording. The remaining data featured in this report derives from a combination of recurring and stand-alone surveys fielded. Sample sizes and margins of error for those surveys are indicated in the methodology statements accompanying each page.
Weighting and population targets
All data featured in this report is weighted to approximate representative samples of either adults or voters in each of the indicated countries. Target populations are the adult (18+) or registered voter populations of the United States, the adult literate population in Brazil, and the adult internet-using population in all other countries.
About the authors
Jason I. McMann leads geopolitical risk analysis at Morning Consult. He leverages the company’s high-frequency survey data to advise clients on how to integrate geopolitical risk into their decision-making. Jason previously served as head of analytics at GeoQuant (now part of Fitch Solutions). He holds a Ph.D. from Princeton University’s Politics Department. Follow him on Twitter @jimcmann. Interested in connecting with Jason to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
Sonnet Frisbie is the deputy head of political intelligence and leads Morning Consult’s geopolitical risk offering for Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Prior to joining Morning Consult, Sonnet spent over a decade at the U.S. State Department specializing in issues at the intersection of economics, commerce and political risk in Iraq, Central Europe and sub-Saharan Africa. She holds an MPP from the University of Chicago.
Follow her on Twitter @sonnetfrisbie. Interested in connecting with Sonnet to discuss her analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
