Global Politics
Global Geopolitical Risk Outlook H1 2023 Report: Nationalism & Societal Polarization Spotlight
Report summary
Morning Consult’s Global Geopolitical Risk Outlook Report provides a comprehensive, data-driven assessment of public attitudes toward key issues at the intersection of politics and economics across 18 of the world’s largest markets. This companion spotlight, focused on nationalism and societal polarization, provides insight into public views on nationalism and isolationism, as well as public attitudes on support for immigration and trust in compatriots.
Key Takeaways
- National Pride: Globally, our survey proxy for nationalism — whether people are proud to live in their country — remained relatively unchanged over 2022, with majorities agreeing across the G-20
- Isolationism: Political and economic pressures linked to the war in Ukraine have not substantially increased global appetites for isolationism, but more people still prefer it than don’t
- Immigration: On average, the war in Ukraine has had little clear impact on attitudes toward immigration, though continental Europeans remain broadly opposed
- Societal Trust: Despite substantial political polarization, majorities of respondents across much of the G-20 continue to trust their compatriots, with shares holding relatively steady over 2022
Methodology
This report relies on data collected through Morning Consult’s proprietary survey research capabilities. Data comes from monthly surveys conducted among representative samples of roughly 1,000 adults per country, with unweighted margins of error of +/-3 percentage points. Our January 2022 survey in Turkey was conducted among 3,111 respondents, with a margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. All interviews are conducted online. Surveys field during the second half of the indicated month.
About the authors
Jason I. McMann leads geopolitical risk analysis at Morning Consult. He leverages the company’s high-frequency survey data to advise clients on how to integrate geopolitical risk into their decision-making. Jason previously served as head of analytics at GeoQuant (now part of Fitch Solutions). He holds a Ph.D. from Princeton University’s Politics Department. Follow him on Twitter @jimcmann. Interested in connecting with Jason to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
Sonnet Frisbie is the deputy head of political intelligence and leads Morning Consult’s geopolitical risk offering for Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Prior to joining Morning Consult, Sonnet spent over a decade at the U.S. State Department specializing in issues at the intersection of economics, commerce and political risk in Iraq, Central Europe and sub-Saharan Africa. She holds an MPP from the University of Chicago.
Follow her on Twitter @sonnetfrisbie. Interested in connecting with Sonnet to discuss her analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
Scott Moskowitz is senior analyst for the Asia-Pacific region at Morning Consult, where he leads geopolitical analysis of China and broader regional issues. Scott holds a Ph.D. in sociology from Princeton University and has years of experience working in and conducting Mandarin-language research on China, with an emphasis on the politics of economic development and consumerism. Follow him on Twitter @ScottyMoskowitz. Interested in connecting with Scott to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
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