Global Geopolitical Risk Outlook: H2 2023 Report

Key Takeaways

• COVID-19: Public concern about the pandemic has receded into the background. For the first time since we began tracking sentiment surrounding it, the average share of adults who view COVID-19 as a “major threat” has fallen below the share who see it as a “minor threat.”
• Economic conditions & political unrest: Public views of global economic conditions improved gradually over H1 2023. There are nevertheless ongoing risks that clients should be attentive to, including a weaker rebound in emerging market sentiment, plateauing views in developed ones and bearish sentiment overall.
• Social and labor unrest: We expect public discontent over income and upward mobility to spread in emerging markets so long as views of the economy continue to trend negatively. Developed markets are more insulated.
• Trust & political stability: Net trust in central government remains underwater across most of the G20, but it ticked up slightly over H1 2023 in both developed and emerging markets. We expect rising trust across both country groups, albeit from a low base, to temper long-term risks of political instability arising from public concerns about the economy and livelihoods, though near-term risks remain.
• Democracy & growth: On average, the public continues to prefer democratic governance over growth by a wide margin, suggesting economic headwinds have not tipped the scale in favor of autocracy. A recent decline in support for democracy among emerging markets is not an immediate cause for concern, but it is worth monitoring.
• Isolationism: Well into the second year of the war in Ukraine, public support for global engagement remains consistently underwater among industrialized markets. The United States is most poised for retrenchment relative to other countries.