Global Politics
Political Risk Ratings: MACRO Political Briefing, December 2024
Report summary
Morning Consult’s monthly Market Commentary & Risk Outlook (MACRO) Political Briefing provides a consolidated risk outlook for all markets covered by Morning Consult's Global Political Risk Ratings — including ratings action and watches, risk trajectories, risk readings, and related volatility and confidence metrics. The MACRO Briefing additionally provides analyst commentary for all markets for which Morning Consult has issued ratings upgrades/downgrades, and selective commentary for markets for which Morning Consult has issued ratings watches.
The Briefing serves as Morning Consult's flagship monthly analysis of political risk globally alongside the companion ratings and is intended to inform risk management efforts across the corporate and financial services spaces, including by serving as inputs into scenario planning and sovereign ratings models.
Latest market commentary:
The December 2024 edition includes market commentary and forward risk outlooks for:
- Austria (downside rating watch)
- Belgium (downside rating watch)
- Indonesia (upgrade)
- Israel (downgrade)
- Japan (downgrade)
- Norway (downgrade)
- Poland (downside rating watch)
- South Africa (downside rating watch)
Methodology
Morning Consult’s Political Risk Ratings are constructed using standardized, survey-derived risk metrics. All survey data used to produce the ratings was collected through Morning Consult’s proprietary survey research capabilities. All survey interviews are conducted online. Data is weighted to approximate representative samples of adults in each country. Weighting parameters and target populations vary by country.
Consult our Risk Ratings Definitions and Methodology Primer for additional ratings details. Consult our Global Political Intelligence Methodology Primer for supplementary details on the underlying survey data, including sampling and data collection procedures, weighting and representativeness, margins of error, and question wording.
Commercial Data Access: All data used to produce Morning Consult’s Political Risk Ratings derives from Morning Consult Political Intelligence — our flagship commercial data product measuring political attitudes in 43 countries on a daily basis. Daily risk metrics are available for Morning Consult Intelligence clients, facilitating higher-frequency assessments of political risk globally. Contact us with inquiries regarding enterprise use.
About the authors
Jason I. McMann leads geopolitical risk analysis at Morning Consult. He leverages the company’s high-frequency survey data to advise clients on how to integrate geopolitical risk into their decision-making. Jason previously served as head of analytics at GeoQuant (now part of Fitch Solutions). He holds a Ph.D. from Princeton University’s Politics Department. Follow him on Twitter @jimcmann. Interested in connecting with Jason to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
Sonnet Frisbie is the deputy head of political intelligence and leads Morning Consult’s geopolitical risk offering for Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Prior to joining Morning Consult, Sonnet spent over a decade at the U.S. State Department specializing in issues at the intersection of economics, commerce and political risk in Iraq, Central Europe and sub-Saharan Africa. She holds an MPP from the University of Chicago.
Follow her on Twitter @sonnetfrisbie. Interested in connecting with Sonnet to discuss her analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
