Morning Consult | Bloomberg News Partnership Survey: Key Issues and Ballot Performance One Year Ahead of the 2024 Presidential Election
Decision intelligence company Morning Consult, on behalf of Bloomberg News, is conducting a monthly seven-state study in 2024 political swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) to uncover where voters stand on key issues surrounding the presidential election.
The findings below reflect data at the state level. Results from the first wave (Oct. 5-10) can be found here.
Key Takeaways
Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in six of the seven surveyed 2024 swing states: Arizona (+4 percentage points), Georgia (+9 points), Nevada (+4 points), North Carolina (+9 points), Pennsylvania (+3 points) and Wisconsin (+2 points). Biden leads Trump by 1 point in Michigan. With the exception of Georgia and North Carolina, these results fall within each state’s margin of error. These results are from a ballot with President Joe Biden, former President Donald Trump, and third-party candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, as well as options to write in another name, answer “don’t know/no opinion” or say they wouldn’t vote.
On this ballot, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. drew support from roughly 1 in 10 voters in each swing state, while 1-2% of voters in each state supported Cornel West and 2-3% supported a write-in candidate.
When third-party candidates are removed from the ballot, Biden loses his lead in Michigan, as both he and Trump earned 43% support. The remaining six states continued to lean in favor of Trump in a head-to-head, including Nevada, where Biden led Trump by 3 points last month but is now trailing him by 3 points.
In each of the seven states, of the 17 issues listed, 2-4% of voters identified the Israel-Hamas war as the most important when deciding who to back in 2024. Also in each state, voters reported having more trust in Trump to handle the war than in Biden. Consistent with last month’s data, the economy is the most important issue to voters in each of the seven states.
To see what voters in each swing state are prioritizing on the 2024 ballot and their trust in Biden vs. Trump to handle each issue, download the data files below.
Data Downloads
To look at the full list of questions and responses by voters in each swing state, download the data files above.
Methodology
This survey, which identifies key issues in the 2024 election and measures how much swing state voters trust Biden vs. Trump on these issues and how Biden vs. Trump perform on swing state ballots, was conducted from Oct. 30-Nov. 7, 2023, among a sample of 4,922 registered voters across seven 2024 political swing states: 800 registered voters in Arizona, 803 in Georgia, 700 in Michigan, 437 in Nevada, 702 in North Carolina, 805 in Pennsylvania and 675 in Wisconsin. The interviews were conducted online, and the data for each state was weighted to approximate a target sample of registered voters in the respective state based on gender, age, race, marital status, home ownership and 2020 presidential vote. The margin of error for the full survey is +/-3 points in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania, +/-4 points in Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin and +/-5 points in Nevada.
Interested in connecting with a member of the Morning Consult team regarding our recent data and analysis? Email [email protected].
