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Morning Consult | Bloomberg News: How Biden vs. Trump Perform on Swing-State Ballots
Decision intelligence company Morning Consult, on behalf of Bloomberg News, conducted a seven-state study in the 2024 political swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) to uncover where voters stand on key issues surrounding the presidential election.
The findings below reflect aggregated results from voters across the seven states, referred to collectively as “swing-state voters.” State-level results from voters for each of the seven states can be found here.
Key Takeaways
Looking at registered voters across the seven swing states in the aggregate, President Joe Biden is trailing former President Donald Trump by 4 percentage points on a ballot including Biden, Trump, a Libertarian candidate, a Green Party candidate and a No Labels candidate. In a forced head-to-head between Biden and Trump, Trump continues to lead Biden by 4 points overall.
The picture looks bleaker for Biden when digging into independents, who may have the power to decide the 2024 election in these swing states. Among the 1,323 self-identified independents across the seven states, Biden is 10 points behind Trump on the ballot that includes third-party candidates, and he is 8 points behind Trump in a direct head-to-head.
Driving Trump’s ballot strength is the trust he garners over Biden in handling the most important issues facing the country today — especially regarding the economy. Swing state voters trust Trump significantly more than Biden on the economy (49% to 35%), with independents holding even less trust in Biden on this key issue (47% to 25%).
To see how swing state voters trust Trump vs. Biden on additional issues, such as immigration, crime, U.S.-China relations and climate change, download the data files below.
Data Downloads
To look at the full list of questions and responses by swing state voters, download the data files above — available in PDF and Excel format.
Methodology
This survey, which identifies key issues in the 2024 election and measures how much voters trust Biden vs. Trump on these issues and how Biden vs. Trump perform on a ballot in swing states, was conducted from Oct. 5-10, 2023, among a sample of 5,023 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The interviews were conducted online, and the data were weighted to approximate a target sample of swing state registered voters based on gender, age, race, marital status, home ownership, 2020 presidential vote and state. Results from the full survey have a margin of error of +/-1 percentage point.
Interested in connecting with a member of the Morning Consult team regarding our recent data and analysis? Email [email protected].
