Trump’s Grip on 2024 GOP Primary Field Slips in Wake of Capitol Insurrection

42% of GOP voters say they’d back Trump in a GOP primary, down 12 points from November
Supporters of President Donald Trump cheer and hold a shirt that says Trump 2024 at a rally at the Arizona Veterans Memorial Coliseum on Feb. 19, 2020, in Phoenix. Trump's standing among Republicans in a hypothetical GOP primary has dropped 12 points since November, from 54% to 42%. (Caitlin O'Hara/Getty Images)
January 13, 2021 at 6:00 am UTC

President Donald Trump remains Republican voters’ top choice for president in 2024, but polling shows he is in a weaker position than he was before last week’s insurrection at the Capitol left five people dead. 

Forty-two percent of GOP voters said in a new Morning Consult/Politico survey that they would vote for Trump if the 2024 Republican presidential primary were held today, down 12 percentage points from a Nov. 21-23 poll. The latest poll was conducted Jan. 8-11 among 595 Republican voters, with a 4-point margin of error.

The decline in backing dovetails with another finding in the survey that could signal diminished intraparty clout during Trump’s post-presidency period: Trump’s job approval among GOP voters, at 75 percent, is the lowest share of support in Morning Consult/Politico polling since August 2017, when 73 percent approved. Trump’s approval rating of 34 percent among all voters also represents his worst review from the electorate in Morning Consult/Politico surveys conducted during his presidency.

Trump’s weakened standing within the party isn’t giving any of the other potential horses in the race a major leg up, however.

Support for Vice President Mike Pence has ticked up by 4 points since November while Sens. Mitt Romney of Utah and Ted Cruz of Texas saw respective 3- and 2-point increases during that time period. Nikki Haley, the former two-term governor of South Carolina and United Nations ambassador, polled at 5 percent, up 1 point since November.

Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri, who along with Cruz led the effort on the Senate side of the Capitol to reject the Electoral College vote tallies certifying President-elect Joe Biden’s victory, was the first choice for just 1 percent of GOP voters, unchanged from the poll conducted late last year. He finds himself near the bottom of the field, along with the following potential candidates: Sens. Tim Scott of South Carolina and Marco Rubio of Florida and Gov. Kristi Noem of South Dakota, at 2 percent each; Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas at 1 percent; and Sen. Rick Scott of Florida and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, at 0 percent.

Donald Trump Jr. -- who along with his father was among the Republican Party’s loudest messengers for allegations of electoral impropriety since the Nov. 3 elections -- also saw his support drop, from 8 percent to 6 percent.

A headshot photograph of Cameron Easley
Cameron Easley
Lead U.S. Politics Analyst

Cameron Easley is Morning Consult’s lead analyst for U.S. politics. Prior to moving into his current role, he led Morning Consult's editorial coverage of U.S. politics and elections from 2016 through 2022. Cameron joined Morning Consult from Roll Call, where he was managing editor. He graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Follow him on Twitter @cameron_easley. Interested in connecting with Cameron to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].

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