EMEA: Leader Approval & Country Trajectory Outlook March 2024

Israel

As dour as Israelis’ outlook was before the tragic events of Oct. 7, 2023 they did exhibit signs of rallying together in the aftermath of Hamas’ attacks: Their net outlook on the country’s trajectory rose 20 points in the days following the attacks. But that initial pulling together is showing signs of fraying in 2024, as views have turned negative once again. 

At the same time, Netanyahu’s net approval saw no signs of receiving a similar solidarity boost following the Oct. 7 attacks. Views of his performance were and remain low on balance, at around -30 points.

Netanyahu, whose judicial reforms sparked major protests throughout much of 2023, may have received a brief reprieve from calls for his ouster, but our data suggests that breather is coming to an end. In recent weeks, protests calling for elections have started up again, though not on anything like the scale of those seen before the Oct. 7 attacks. And Netanyahu himself has dismissed calls for early elections, which must take place before 2026. Given his lackluster approval numbers, our outlook is that delaying elections as long as possible makes sense for his all-right-wing coalition. 

Nigeria

Back in November, we argued that Bola Tinubu’s election tribunal travails had cut short his post-election honeymoon. We now think the marriage is truly on the rocks. The Nigerian president’s rapid scrapping of a costly but popular fuel subsidy and dismantling of a parallel exchange rate system have sparked the highest inflation in over 25 years as of January 2024 and stoked a growing cost of living crisis. At the same time, insecurity appears to be rising once again in the volatile northwest as 300 students were kidnapped en masse in early March. 

Tinubu’s already low approval took a nosedive in mid January to roughly -48 net points. In tandem, Nigerians’ views of their country’s trajectory reached a truly abysmal -80 points. A young population holding such a dim outlook amid widespread economic pain is a recipe for further insecurity and instability. 

South Africa

Since the ruling African National Congress (ANC) took office with the fall of apartheid 30 years ago, it has been able to form a government without coalition partners after every election. The May 29 elections may change that.  

President Cyril Ramaphosa spent much of the last two years of his tenure in deeply negative approval rating territory, and public views of South Africa’s overall country trajectory are even more negative. Many South Africans blame the ANC for ills ranging from crime to unemployment.  In the same vein, in the last two months we’ve seen the share of South African adults who say the ANC is the party closest to their own views slide below 30%, and it is now polling neck and neck with the opposition Democratic Alliance (DA), making it increasingly likely that coalition-building is in the offing. 

Coalitions at the local and regional level between major parties in South Africa have not been particularly stable in recent years, creating well-founded fears of an extended and potentially unstable government formation process. Given the shifting dynamics of support for the ANC, we tend to agree, and advise planning for such an outcome heading further into Q2. 

Turkey

After President Erdoğan’s narrow election victory in May 2023, it seemed possible that he was headed for positive approval territory, at least temporarily. From baseline approval levels closer to -30 points during periods of runaway inflation in the summer of 2022, he was ultimately able to recover to -10 points in the window surrounding the election, with his approval tightly tied to consumer sentiment. 

But it was not to last. Turks’ pessimism about their country’s trajectory, at around -40 net points on a net basis, and the drop in consumer confidence in June and July, sandbagged any prospect for persistently high approval. In addition, in July of last year, after months of stoking domestic populist sentiment around Sweden’s NATO bid, Erdoğan cut a pragmatic deal to drop Turkey’s opposition to its accession to the alliance on July 11. Both the general mood, and his own approval rating, dropped sharply thereafter. 

Despite a drop in approval of Erdoğan, the overall dour mood  equally may be a liability for incumbents from opposition parties in this weekend’s local elections, like Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu. Erdogan, for his part, has been avidly campaigning on behalf of AKP’s mayoral candidate, Murat Kurum. Turks seem unimpressed with their choices.