Despite Stumbles as Kingmaker, Trump Is Still Dominating the 2024 GOP Primary Field

Former President Donald Trump’s kingmaker status may be under scrutiny following a spate of recent losses by his endorsees in 2022 midterm election primaries, but a new Morning Consult/Politico survey suggests he remains firmly in control of the millions of Republican voters nationwide who would ultimately matter most come 2024.

Trump is outpacing the 2024 GOP primary field

• In the June 4-5 survey, 53% of GOP voters said they would vote for Trump over at least a dozen other potential candidates if the 2024 Republican presidential primary were held today — down just 3 percentage points from his potential vote share in a survey conducted before 2022’s primary season heated up. 
• Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — who for the second year running defeated Trump in an unscientific straw poll of conservative activists at the Western Conservative Summit in Colorado over the weekend — saw his support tick up from 13% to 16%.
• Once again, former Vice President Mike Pence finished third in the latest Morning Consult survey of the hypothetical primary field, seeing his support rise from 10% to 13%.
• Nikki Haley, a former Trump administration official and South Carolina governor, was the top choice of 4% of respondents, followed by Sens. Ted Cruz (Texas) and Mitt Romney (Utah) at 3% each.
• The remaining slate of potential candidates — which included Sens. Tom Cotton of Arkansas, Josh Hawley of Missouri, Tim Scott of South Carolina and Rick Scott of Florida and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo — all pulled in 1% or less.

Trump’s grip on the Republican Party

While political observers and operatives have taken a keen interest in the win-loss record of his endorsees in recent weeks, the latest survey is just another reminder of an uncomfortable truth facing the former president’s would-be challengers: It matters little that Trump has even a below-average endorsement victory rate as long as he remains the top 2024 choice for Republican primary voters around the country.

The latest Morning Consult/Politico survey was conducted June 4-5, 2022, among 712 Republican registered voters, with an unweighted margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.