Tracking the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
Latest surveys conducted Sept. 20-22, 2024, among 11,057 likely voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-1 percentage point. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Ahead of the 2024 presidential election, Morning Consult is conducting thousands of surveys every day, asking U.S. voters if they plan to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump in November, as well as how they view these candidates and other top political figures. Our ongoing candidate tracking is complemented by daily tracking of the issues voters consider most important when making their decisions at the ballot box, whom they trust most to handle those issues and the extent to which media coverage of those issues is reaching them.
Every week, we’ll update this page with the latest tracking data on all of the major questions heading into the 2024 general election. For our latest state-level tracking of the race in 14 states, as well as key Senate and gubernatorial contests, see here.
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Key Takeaways
Harris leads Trump: Harris leads Trump by 5 percentage points among likely voters, 50% to 45%, down from a 6-point lead last week. The latest tracking shows Harris pulling 80% among Black likely voters, her best numbers to date. Trump’s support among Black likely voters (16%) is his worst so far, driven by a decline among those under the age of 45 (from 28% to 21%) since the beginning of the month.
Harris is more popular than ever: Likely voters are 9 points more likely to view Harris favorably than unfavorably (53% to 44%), a record high that continues a significant advantage that has expanded over Trump, who is 8 points underwater (45% to 53%), since she launched her campaign in July.
Congressional Democrats take lead on crime: Likely voters are now slightly more likely to trust Democrats in Congress than Republicans in Congress to handle crime and public safety (46% to 44%). It’s the first time all cycle that Democrats have led Republicans on this issue — whether it be among registered voters or likely voters.
Our latest tracking from 14 states: Harris leads Trump within the margin of sampling error in Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin and Minnesota, while she leads Trump outside of the margin of error in Michigan, Maryland, Colorado and Virginia. Meanwhile, Trump leads Harris inside the margin of sampling error in Georgia, Florida and Texas, and outside of the margin of error in Ohio. Read more here: Tracking the 2024 Election: State by State.
Data Downloads
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Tracking 2024 Presidential Vote Choice Over Time
Data points reflect a three-day moving average of surveys conducted among at least 4,000 registered U.S. voters, with unweighted margins of +/-1 to 2 percentage points. Data points prior to Sep. 4 show results among registered voters, while those on and after that date reflect likely voters.
- Harris began her campaign with more support than Biden ever received from the national electorate this cycle.
- Harris’ entry into the race reduced the appetite for a protest vote: Fewer voters became uncertain about their vote or planned to opt for someone else with her on the ballot.
- Likely voters are even less likely than registered voters to be unsure of how they'll vote or to say they'll back a third-party option.
Tracking Politicians' Popularity
Latest survey conducted Sept. 20-22, 2024, among 2,163 likely U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Net favorability is the share of potential voters with favorable views minus the share with unfavorable views.
- Before she ascended to the top of the ticket, sentiment about Harris had tracked closely with views about Biden. But since securing presumptive status as the Democratic presidential nominee, Harris has become significantly more popular than Biden, Trump and her party’s brand on Capitol Hill.
- For most of this election cycle, Democrats in Congress have managed to maintain a consistent edge in popularity over their Republican counterparts.
Tracking the Buzz About Politicians
Latest survey conducted Sept. 20-22, 2024, among 2,163 likely U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Net buzz is the share of voters who heard something positive minus the share who heard something negative.
- The kind of information voters heard about Harris previously tracked with what they were hearing about Biden, but it’s been a different story since she became the Democratic nominee: Her net buzz rating now exceeds Trump’s and Biden’s by double digits.
- Voters have been more likely to say they’re hearing good things about Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz than Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance.
- Fewer voters said they’ve heard about members of Congress, though once again, it’s the GOP that tends to generate more negative coverage.
- The tenor of coverage about Biden has improved drastically since he announced his decision on July 21 not to seek re-election this year.
Tracking 2024’s Top Issues
Latest survey conducted Sept. 20-22, 2024, among 2,163 likely U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points.
- The economy remains voters’ top issue for the 2024 elections. And though the share who said it’s “very important” in deciding their vote dropped during much of 2023, the economy’s salience has ticked back up in recent months.
Tracking the Buzz About 2024's Top Issues
Latest survey conducted Sept. 20-22, 2024, among 2,163 likely U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Net buzz is the share of voters who heard something positive minus the share who heard something negative.
- The tenor of media coverage about the economy, jobs, and crime have improved, albeit unevenly, over the course of this election cycle.
- Meanwhile, the tone of coverage about immigration has remained overwhelmingly negative as illegal crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border have persisted.
Congressional Trust on Handling of 2024's Top Issues
Latest survey conducted Sept. 20-22, 2024, among 2,163 likely U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points.
- Similar to the run-up to the 2022 midterms, Republicans are more favored than Democrats to handle national security and immigration. Democrats maintain their trust advantages on health care, entitlement programs, climate change and abortion.
Source of This Data
Methodology
The latest national results on the general-election matchup of Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump reflect surveys conducted Sept. 20-22, 2024, among 11,057 likely U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-1 percentage point. Results from surveys that concluded prior to Sept. 4, 2024, are among registered U.S. voters — not likely voters.
Results do not include responses among voters who were initially undecided and were asked to pick which candidate they are leaning toward. Our likely voter criteria includes any registered voters who say they are highly likely to vote in the November 2024 general election. The scale of our likely voter filter question ranges from 1-10, where “1” means an individual will definitely not vote in the November 2024 presidential election and “10” means an individual will definitely vote in November. Respondents who answer that they are an “8” or higher are deemed likely voters.
Morning Consult’s latest reported results on questions pertaining to candidate favorability and buzz, issue prioritization and buzz, and congressional issue trust reflect data gathered on a weekly basis among roughly 2,000 likely U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. Results from weekly surveys that concluded prior to Sept. 1, 2024, are among registered voters — not likely voters. For more information on our 2024 methodology, see here.
About Morning Consult
Morning Consult is a global decision intelligence company changing how modern leaders make smarter, faster, better decisions. The company pairs its proprietary high-frequency data with applied artificial intelligence to better inform decisions on what people think and how they will act. Learn more at morningconsult.com.
Cameron Easley is Morning Consult’s lead analyst for U.S. politics. Prior to moving into his current role, he led Morning Consult's editorial coverage of U.S. politics and elections from 2016 through 2022. Cameron joined Morning Consult from Roll Call, where he was managing editor. He graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Follow him on Twitter @cameron_easley. Interested in connecting with Cameron to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
Eli Yokley is Morning Consult’s U.S. politics analyst. Eli joined Morning Consult in 2016 from Roll Call, where he reported on House and Senate campaigns after five years of covering state-level politics in the Show Me State while studying at the University of Missouri in Columbia, including contributions to The New York Times, Politico and The Daily Beast. Follow him on Twitter @eyokley. Interested in connecting with Eli to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
