Tracking the 2024 Election: State by State
Ahead of the 2024 presidential election, Morning Consult is conducting thousands of surveys every day, asking U.S. voters if they plan to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump in November. In addition to our ongoing national tracking of that contest, we’re also tracking the presidential race in 14 states, as well as key Senate and gubernatorial contests.
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Key Takeaways
The presidential election remains a toss-up, with just one candidate — Harris in Michigan — holding a lead outside the margin of sampling error in any Electoral College battleground.
In the race for the Senate, Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio is the only Democrat to see his margin against his Republican opponent shrink since the debate, while Republican Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas now trails his Democratic challenger well within the survey's margin of error.
Data Downloads
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Tracking the 2024 Presidential Election in 14 States
- Harris leads Trump within the margin of sampling error in Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin and Minnesota. She leads Trump outside of the margin of error in Michigan, Maryland, Colorado and Virginia.
- Trump leads Harris inside the margin of sampling error in Georgia, Florida and Texas, and outside of the margin of error in Ohio.
Trend Over Time
- Compared with our first state-level surveys released in early September, Harris has taken a lead in Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina, while she has widened her advantages in Michigan and Wisconsin, although that movement is within the margins of error of each survey.
- Trump has seen improvements within the margin of error in his standing in Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia over the same time period.
Tracking Key 2024 Senate Races in Nine States
- Democrats in five states currently hold leads outside of the margin of sampling error, including Ruben Gallego of Arizona, Angela Alsobrooks of Maryland and Elissa Slotkin of Michigan in their open-seat races, as well as incumbent Sens. Bob Casey of Ohio and Jacky Rosen of Nevada who face re-election.
- Two other Democratic incumbents, Sens. Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin also lead their challengers, albeit within the surveys’ margins of sampling error.
- There are two potentially vulnerable Republican Senate incumbents of the cycle. Rick Scott of Florida leads his Democratic challenger within the margin of sampling error, and Ted Cruz of Texas trails his challenger by 1 point, well within the margin of error.
Trend Over Time
- Most Democratic candidates we’re tracking have managed to put a little more distance between themselves and their challengers compared to surveys conducted before the Sept. 10 presidential debate, which Harris won. However, all of this movement is marginal and within each samples’ margin of error.
- The biggest beneficiary of Harris’ debate victory appears to be Democratic Rep. Colin Allred of Texas, who trailed Cruz by 5 points in pre-debate surveys but now leads by 1 point.
- Brown of Ohio is the only Senate Democrat to see his margin against his opponent shrink since the debate.
Tracking the 2024 Gubernatorial Race in North Carolina
- Attorney General Josh Stein (D) continues to lead Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) by a large margin in 2024’s marquee gubernatorial matchup, with the latter running far behind the top of the ticket in North Carolina.
- Only 78% of likely Republican voters say they’d vote for Robinson if the election were held today, compared with 94% who’d vote for Trump.
Methodology
The latest surveys were conducted Sept. 9-18, 2024, among likely voters in each state, with margins of error ranging from +/-5 percentage points in Nevada to +/-2 percentage points in Florida, Texas and Pennsylvania. Responses from likely voters in Colorado, Minnesota, Maryland and Wisconsin have margins of error of +/-4 percentage points. Responses from Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia have margins of error of +/-3 percentage points.
Results do not include responses among voters who were initially undecided and were asked to pick which candidate they are leaning toward. Our likely voter criteria includes any registered voters who say they are highly likely to vote in the November 2024 general election. The scale of our likely voter filter question ranges from 1-10, where “1” means an individual will definitely not vote in the November 2024 presidential election and “10” means an individual will definitely vote in November. Respondents who answer that they are an “8” or higher are deemed likely voters. For more information on our 2024 methodology, see here.
Cameron Easley is Morning Consult’s lead analyst for U.S. politics. Prior to moving into his current role, he led Morning Consult's editorial coverage of U.S. politics and elections from 2016 through 2022. Cameron joined Morning Consult from Roll Call, where he was managing editor. He graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Follow him on Twitter @cameron_easley. Interested in connecting with Cameron to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
Eli Yokley is Morning Consult’s U.S. politics analyst. Eli joined Morning Consult in 2016 from Roll Call, where he reported on House and Senate campaigns after five years of covering state-level politics in the Show Me State while studying at the University of Missouri in Columbia, including contributions to The New York Times, Politico and The Daily Beast. Follow him on Twitter @eyokley. Interested in connecting with Eli to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
