Tracking the 2024 Election: State by State
Ahead of the 2024 presidential election, Morning Consult is conducting thousands of surveys every day, asking U.S. voters if they plan to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump in November. In addition to our ongoing national tracking of that contest, we’re also tracking the presidential race in 14 states, as well as key Senate and gubernatorial contests.
Sign up for the latest political news and analysis delivered to your inbox every morning.
Key Takeaways
The presidential election is a toss-up, with neither candidate at the top of the ticket holding leads outside the margin of error in any of the key states that will decide the winner of the Electoral College.
Senate incumbents on both sides of the aisle in the races we're tracking look to be in good shape, while Democrats appear to have an edge in open-seat races.
Data Downloads
Pro+ subscribers are able to download the datasets that underpin Morning Consult Pro's reports and analysis. Contact us to get access.
Tracking the 2024 Presidential Election in 14 States
- Harris leads Trump within the margin of sampling error in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Trump leads Harris inside the margin of sampling error in Arizona and Florida, while the two candidates are tied in Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. In Colorado, Maryland and Virginia, Harris holds leads outside the surveys’ margins of error, while the same is true for Trump in Ohio and Texas.
- Harris holds at least a small lead among independent voters in most states we’re tracking. However, that is not the case in Ohio and Arizona, where Trump has backing from roughly half of the likely independent voters there.
Tracking Key 2024 Senate Races in Nine States
- Democrats in four states currently hold leads outside of the margin of sampling error, including Reps. Ruben Gallego of Arizona and Elissa Slotkin of Michigan in their open-seat races and incumbent Sens. Bob Casey of Ohio and Jacky Rosen of Nevada who face re-election.
- Three other Democrats — incumbent Sens. Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin and Angela Alsobrooks, an executive of Prince George’s County in Maryland — also lead their challengers, albeit within the surveys’ margins of sampling error.
- The only two potentially vulnerable Republican Senate incumbents of the cycle, Rick Scott of Florida and Ted Cruz of Texas, each lead their challengers’ outside of the margin of sampling error.
Tracking the 2024 Gubernatorial Race in North Carolina
- Attorney General Josh Stein (D) leads Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) by a large margin in 2024’s marquee gubernatorial matchup, with the latter running far behind the top of the ticket in North Carolina.
- Only 73% of likely Republican voters say they’d vote for Robinson if the election were held today, compared with 93% who’d vote for Trump.
Methodology
These surveys were conducted Aug. 30-Sept. 8, 2024, among likely voters in each state, with margins of error ranging from +/-4 percentage points in Colorado, Minnesota, Nevada, Wisconsin and Maryland to +/-2 percentage points in Florida, Texas and Pennsylvania. Responses from likely voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia have margins of error of +/-3 percentage points.
Results do not include responses among voters who were initially undecided and were asked to pick which candidate they are leaning toward. Our likely voter criteria includes any registered voters who say they are highly likely to vote in the November 2024 general election. The scale of our likely voter filter question ranges from 1-10, where “1” means an individual will definitely not vote in the November 2024 presidential election and “10” means an individual will definitely vote in November. Respondents who answer that they are an “8” or higher are deemed likely voters. For more information on our 2024 methodology, see here.
Cameron Easley is Morning Consult’s lead analyst for U.S. politics. Prior to moving into his current role, he led Morning Consult's editorial coverage of U.S. politics and elections from 2016 through 2022. Cameron joined Morning Consult from Roll Call, where he was managing editor. He graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Follow him on Twitter @cameron_easley. Interested in connecting with Cameron to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
Eli Yokley is Morning Consult’s U.S. politics analyst. Eli joined Morning Consult in 2016 from Roll Call, where he reported on House and Senate campaigns after five years of covering state-level politics in the Show Me State while studying at the University of Missouri in Columbia, including contributions to The New York Times, Politico and The Daily Beast. Follow him on Twitter @eyokley. Interested in connecting with Eli to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
