Tracking the 2024 Election: State by State
Ahead of the 2024 presidential election, Morning Consult is conducting thousands of surveys every day, asking U.S. voters if they'd vote for Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump if the election were held today. In addition to our ongoing national tracking of that contest, we’re also tracking the presidential race at the state level, as well as key Senate and gubernatorial contests.
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Key Takeaways
The presidential election remains a toss-up, with neither candidate holding a lead outside the margin of sampling error in any Electoral College battleground.
Democratic incumbents maintain leads in most states that we’re tracking, but Sherrod Brown of Ohio continues to trail Republican challenger Bernie Moreno by a hair.
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Our Final 2024 Presidential Election Surveys
- Harris and Trump are tied in Arizona and Pennsylvania, while the Republican nominee leads Harris well within the margin of sampling error in Georgia, North Carolina and Wisconsin.
- Harris leads Trump inside the margin of error in Michigan.
- Trump leads Harris outside the margin of error in Florida, Ohio and Texas.
Presidential Trend Over Time
Our Final 2024 Senate Election Surveys
- Just one Democrat — Elissa Slotkin of Michigan — leads her GOP opponent outside of the margin of sampling error.
- Four other Democrats — Ruben Gallego of Arizona, Angela Alsobrooks of Maryland, Bob Casey of Ohio and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin — lead their opponents within the margin of error.
- Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown of Ohio continues to trail his Republican challenger Bernie Moreno within the margin of error.
- The two most vulnerable Senate Republicans this cycle, Ted Cruz of Texas and Rick Scott of Florida, lead their respective Democratic challengers by 3 points each, inside the margin of error.
Senate Trend Over Time
Tracking the 2024 Gubernatorial Race in North Carolina
- Attorney General Josh Stein (D) continues to lead embattled Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) by a large margin in 2024’s marquee gubernatorial matchup, with the latter running far behind the top of the ticket in North Carolina.
- Only 71% of likely Republican voters say they’d vote for Robinson if the election were held today, compared with 87% who’d vote for Trump.
Methodology
Our final state-level surveys for the presidential race were conducted Oct. 20-29 in Arizona, Georgia and Texas, Oct. 21-30 in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and Oct. 22-31 in Florida, Maryland, North Carolina and Ohio.
Our final Senate surveys were conducted Oct. 20-29 in Arizona, Oct. 21-30 in Maryland, Pennsylvania and Texas, and Oct. 22-31 in Florida, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin.
Our final gubernatorial survey was conducted Oct. 22-31 in North Carolina.
Results do not include responses among voters who were initially undecided and were asked to pick which candidate they are leaning toward. Our likely voter criteria includes any registered voters who say they are highly likely to vote in the November 2024 general election. The scale of our likely voter filter question ranges from 1-10, where “1” means an individual will definitely not vote in the November 2024 presidential election and “10” means an individual will definitely vote in November. Respondents who answer that they are an “8” or higher are deemed likely voters. For more information on our 2024 methodology, see here.
Cameron Easley is Morning Consult’s lead analyst for U.S. politics. Prior to moving into his current role, he led Morning Consult's editorial coverage of U.S. politics and elections from 2016 through 2022. Cameron joined Morning Consult from Roll Call, where he was managing editor. He graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Follow him on Twitter @cameron_easley. Interested in connecting with Cameron to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
Eli Yokley is Morning Consult’s U.S. politics analyst. Eli joined Morning Consult in 2016 from Roll Call, where he reported on House and Senate campaigns after five years of covering state-level politics in the Show Me State while studying at the University of Missouri in Columbia, including contributions to The New York Times, Politico and The Daily Beast. Follow him on Twitter @eyokley. Interested in connecting with Eli to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
