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Updated on Apr 9, 2024
Updates weekly

Tracking the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

Trump leads Biden
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Whom registered U.S. voters said they would vote for if the 2024 U.S. presidential election were held today

Latest surveys conducted April 5-7, 2024, among a representative sample of 6,236 registered voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-1 percentage point.

 

Ahead of the 2024 presidential election, Morning Consult is conducting thousands of surveys every day, asking registered U.S. voters whom they plan to vote for in 2024’s expected rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, as well as how they view these candidates and other top political figures. Our ongoing candidate tracking is complemented by daily tracking of the issues voters consider most important when making their decisions at the ballot box, whom they trust most to handle those issues and the extent to which media coverage of those issues is reaching them.

Every week, we’ll update this page with the latest tracking data on all of the major questions heading into the 2024 general election. 

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Key Takeaways

  • Trump retakes lead: Trump leads Biden among all voters by 1 percentage point, 44% to 43%. The race remains in a narrower state compared to before the Super Tuesday primary contests, when Trump consistently led throughout January and February.

  • Trump has a slight popularity edge: Trump has retaken a net favorability advantage over Biden, though the bulk of the electorate is still more likely to hold negative views about both major party contenders. However, voters are still more likely to report hearing something negative about Trump than Biden.

  • Middle East salience unchanged post-WCK incident: Roughly 2 in 5 voters (42%) say the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is very important to their 2024 vote, which is up just 1 point since before the Israeli military caused an uproar in America with airstrikes on World Central Kitchen aid workers in Gaza. 

  • Immigration buzz improves: Voters are 40 percentage points more likely to report hearing something negative than positive about immigration recently, which, while still being deeply underwater, is also the best net buzz figure since mid-January.

Data Downloads

Morning Consult Pro+ subscribers are able to access the data sets that power Morning Consult Pro's reports and analysis. Learn more and get access.

Toplines, Weekly Tracker
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PDF toplines covering weekly data featured in this tracker among registered voters
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Crosstabs, Weekly Tracker
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PDF crosstabs covering weekly data featured in this tracker among registered voters and various sub-demographics
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Banner Tables, Weekly Tracker
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Sortable XLS banner tables covering weekly data featured in this tracker among registered voters and various sub-demographics
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XLSX, Trended Head-to-Heads
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A trended, sortable CSV data file covering historical daily data on hypothetical head-to-heads between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump
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A trended, sortable XLSX data file covering all historical waves from January 2023 onwards among U.S. registered voters and key demographics
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Tracking 2024 Presidential Vote Choice Over Time

Share of voters who said they would vote for the following if the 2024 presidential election were held today:
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Data points reflect a three-day moving average of surveys conducted among representative samples of at least 4,000 registered U.S. voters, with unweighted margins of +/-1 to 2 percentage points.

  • While Biden led Trump for most of 2023, Trump began making up ground last summer as the Republican presidential primary heated up. The presumptive GOP nominee consistently led Biden during the first two months of 2024, but the race has narrowed since then to a practical dead heat.
  • Roughly 1 in 10 voters have consistently said they would back a third-party candidate if the election were today, an exceptionally high number that reflects Americans’ dissatisfaction with their probable choices in November.

Tracking Politicians’ Popularity

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Latest survey conducted April 5-7, 2024, among a representative sample of 2,016 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Net favorability is the share of potential voters with favorable views minus the share with unfavorable views.

 

 

  • Biden saw his popularity edge over Trump wane since the height of the GOP’s nominating contest, though both major party contenders are more unpopular than not with the U.S. electorate. 
  • For most of this election cycle, Democrats in Congress have managed to maintain a consistent edge in popularity over their Republican counterparts.

Tracking the Buzz About Politicians

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Latest survey conducted April 5-7, 2024, among a representative sample of 2,016 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Net buzz is the share of voters who heard something positive minus the share who heard something negative.

  • Biden and Trump are dominating the national conversation, with an overwhelming majority of voters having heard something about each figure on a weekly basis. Typically, voters are slightly less likely to report hearing negative news about Biden than Trump.
  • Fewer voters said they’ve heard about members of Congress, though once again, it’s the GOP that tends to generate more negative coverage.

Tracking 2024’s Top Issues

Share of U.S. voters who said the following issues are “very important” when deciding whom to vote for in the 2024 elections:
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Latest survey conducted April 5-7, 2024, among a representative sample of 2,016 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points.

  • The economy remains voters’ top issue for the 2024 elections. And though the share who said it’s “very important” in deciding their vote dropped during much of 2023, the economy’s salience has ticked back up in recent months.

Tracking the Buzz About 2024’s Top Issues

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Latest survey conducted April 5-7, 2024, among a representative sample of 2,016 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Net buzz is the share of voters who heard something positive minus the share who heard something negative.

  • The tenor of media coverage about the economy, jobs, and crime have improved, albeit unevenly, over the course of this election cycle.
  • Meanwhile, the tone of coverage about immigration has remained overwhelmingly negative as illegal crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border have persisted.

Congressional Trust on Handling of 2024's Top Issues

Share of U.S. voters who trust congressional Democrats or Republicans more to handle the following issues:
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Latest survey conducted April 5-7, 2024, among a representative sample of 2,016 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. Numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

  • Similar to the run-up to the 2022 midterms, Republicans are more favored than Democrats to handle the economy, national security and immigration. Democrats maintain their trust advantages on health care, entitlement programs, climate change and abortion. Voters are more divided over whom they trust more to protect against threats to U.S. democracy.

Source of This Data

Methodology

Note: Due to a processing error, vote-choice tracking data for Biden and Trump in our April 1 update reflected inaccurate fielding dates for the prior week. Vote-choice tracking data for Biden and Trump from March 24-31 has been updated.

The latest national results on the general-election matchup of President Joe Biden and Donald Trump reflect surveys conducted April 5-7, 2024, among a representative sample of 6,236 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-1 percentage point.

Voters who are undecided were not asked to pick which candidate they are leaning toward.

Morning Consult’s reported results on questions pertaining to candidate favorability and buzz, issue prioritization and buzz, and congressional issue trust reflect data gathered on a weekly basis among a representative sample of roughly 2,000 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. For more information on our 2024 methodology, see here.

About Morning Consult

Morning Consult is a global decision intelligence company changing how modern leaders make smarter, faster, better decisions. The company pairs its proprietary high-frequency data with applied artificial intelligence to better inform decisions on what people think and how they will act. Learn more at morningconsult.com.

Cameron Easley
Lead U.S. Politics Analyst

Cameron Easley is Morning Consult’s lead analyst for U.S. politics. Prior to moving into his current role, he led Morning Consult's editorial coverage of U.S. politics and elections from 2016 through 2022. Cameron joined Morning Consult from Roll Call, where he was managing editor. He graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Follow him on Twitter @cameron_easley. Interested in connecting with Cameron to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].

Eli Yokley
U.S. Politics Analyst

Eli Yokley is Morning Consult’s U.S. politics analyst. Eli joined Morning Consult in 2016 from Roll Call, where he reported on House and Senate campaigns after five years of covering state-level politics in the Show Me State while studying at the University of Missouri in Columbia, including contributions to The New York Times, Politico and The Daily Beast. Follow him on Twitter @eyokley. Interested in connecting with Eli to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].