Trans-Atlantic Ties Tracker
The trans-Atlantic economic relationship is the largest in the world in terms of transaction value, and among the most complex. Understanding this relationship is key to predicting the trajectory of trade and capital flows, regulation, technological cooperation, and economic statecraft.
The Trans-Atlantic Ties Tracker aims to help multinationals, financial services providers, policymakers and other interested parties better understand the trajectory of public opinion surrounding U.K.-U.S. and E.U.-U.S. relations. It also aids in assessing the implications for the trans-Atlantic economy, including through cross-border trade and capital flows, trans-Atlantic policy and regulatory coordination, and supply chains for consumer goods and critical tech.
Read the latest Trans-Atlantic Relations Report for further in-depth insights, and sign up for Morning Consult Global, our daily geopolitical email briefing.
Key Takeaways
One year on, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has strengthened the trans-Atlantic alliance. U.S. favorability toward both the European Union and NATO remains above pre-invasion levels. The one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine saw a tracking high in European favorability toward NATO. European views of the United States have recovered from downswings in mid-2022, leaving sentiment in line with pre-invasion levels.
Support for energy sanctions against Russia has stabilized. As inflation has moderated, the downward trend in U.S. voters’ support for sanctions on Russian energy has leveled off.
U.S. and European adults rank securing energy supplies, protecting the environment and setting standards for consumer products among their top priorities for cooperation. But U.S. adults give export controls and ethical AI standards higher billing than Europeans do, while Europeans are more keen on scientific cooperation.
Pluralities of U.S. adults now say they would not pay more for either reshored or friend-shored goods. In the face of more dour recession expectations, U.S. consumers appear more reluctant to pony up for these goods.
European Views of NATO and the United States
A Country-by-Country Comparison of European Favorability Toward the United States
U.S. and E.U. Priorities for Cooperation
U.S. Priorities for Cooperation With the European Union by Party Affiliation
Issue Spotlight: Sanctions, Trans-Atlantic Trade, Investment and Supply Chains
European Support for Energy Sanctions on Russia as of February 2023
U.S. Support for Inbound Investment Screening, Outbound Export and Investment Controls
Willingness to Pay More for Reshoring and Friend-Shoring
How Much More U.S. Adults Would Pay for Reshoring and Friend-Shoring
Methodology
The Trans-Atlantic Ties Tracker relies on data collected through Morning Consult’s proprietary survey research capabilities. Interviews are conducted online.
All U.S. data aside from the country favorability series derives from monthly surveys conducted among representative samples of roughly 2,200 U.S. adults or 2,000 registered voters each, with unweighted margins of error of +/-2 percentage points. Data are weighted to approximate representative samples of U.S. voters or adults. U.S. country favorability data comes from Morning Consult Political Intelligence. Country favorability data is based on pooled five-day moving averages of U.S. adults and has an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. Morning Consult last updated its weights for U.S. adults on April 1, 2022.
All European data aside from the country favorability series derives from surveys conducted among representative samples of roughly 1,000 adults per country, with unweighted margins of error of +/-3 percentage points each. Data are weighted to approximate representative samples of adults in each country. European country favorability data comes from Morning Consult Political Intelligence. Daily reports are based on pooled five-day moving averages of adults in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom, each with an unweighted margin of error of less than +/-1 percentage point. The favorability map for Europe reports six-month aggregates with sample sizes ranging from roughly 7,800 to 63,000 adults per country, with unweighted margins of error of less than +/-1 percentage point each.
Morning Consult updated its weights for all countries featured in this tracker on Jan. 1, 2023. Dates indicated in all line charts correspond to the last day of survey fielding for each wave.
About Morning Consult
Morning Consult is a global decision intelligence company changing how modern leaders make smarter, faster, better decisions. The company pairs its proprietary high-frequency data with applied artificial intelligence to better inform decisions on what people think and how they will act. Learn more at morningconsult.com.
Email [email protected] to speak with a member of the Morning Consult team.
Sonnet Frisbie leads Morning Consult’s geopolitical risk offering for Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Prior to joining Morning Consult, Sonnet spent over a decade at the U.S. State Department specializing in issues at the intersection of economics, commerce and political risk in Iraq, Central Europe and sub-Saharan Africa. She holds an MPP from the University of Chicago.
Follow her on Twitter @sonnetfrisbie. Interested in connecting with Sonnet to discuss her analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
