Counter/Consensus: Tariffs, Trust in Business, Country Affinity, and the Russian Reaction to Trump

1. Russian Views of the U.S. (Consensus)

Mixed messages. While our data has shown that overseas audiences generally appear spooked by the prospect of a second Trump term, there have been some nuanced exceptions among both allies (Israel and the Gulf nations) and adversaries. 

In Russia, views of the United States jumped on news of Trump’s election victory. Russian state media has generally portrayed Trump as the better outcome for Moscow’s interests, and in particular for a favorable resolution of its invasion of Ukraine. 

This comes as no surprise. Trump has vowed to rapidly end the war in Ukraine upon taking office, likely by pushing Kyiv to make territorial concessions to Moscow along existing battle lines under the threat of withdrawing U.S. military support, with no path to NATO or E.U. membership. Ukraine has said that a peace deal must invalidate Russia’s territorial gains, including its occupation of Crimea which Russia annexed in 2014. NATO’s position, meanwhile, has been a commitment to Ukraine’s eventual membership, a position now at odds with that of the incoming U.S. administration. Trump’s qualms with NATO are well-known and he continues to threaten to withdraw the United States from the alliance.

All of this helps explain both Russians’ glee and Europeans’ angst. That said, we do not expect a durable improvement in Russians’ views of the United States. They are still overwhelmingly negative, in the realm of -35 points. 

MC Pro subscribers can find additional country-specific and regional cuts of the data our recent memo here. 

2. Country-of-Origin Effects (Consensus)

Eat, drink, and be American. While our country affinity work has consistently demonstrated a systematic relationship between American brands’ reputation and that of the United States, it can also be used to identify outliers — both at the level of individual brands and by sector — helping to identify outsized risks or opportunities.

Among the U.S. brands whose favorability we monitor daily as part of our Morning Consult Intelligence product, it was those in the food and beverage sector that were singled out for a negative shock post-Hamas attacks, meaning worsening views of America led to outsized declines in brand favorability. By contrast, in our initial industry breakdown of country affinity scores from 2023, the food and beverage category sat squarely in the middle of our sectoral ranking — neither the most strongly nor the most weakly associated with views of the United States. Now, however, when we look at U.S. brands, the food and beverage category tops the list of industries that have high affinity with the United States.

With president-elect Trump poised to return to the White House in early 2025, we expect geopolitical tensions to both shift and persist: While the war in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict may ultimately be resolved in relatively short order, burgeoning conflicts with China could lie around the corner. And in the aftermath of the U.S. elections, favorability toward the United States among its overseas allies has already begun to become more negative, suggesting increasing risks for brands may lie in wait in parts of Europe and Asia. By contrast, in countries where we expect warm bilateral ties with the incoming Trump administration — such as Israel and the Gulf states — brands may see upside commercial potential.

For brands aiming to stay ahead of the curve, we advise monitoring our U.S. reputation tracker (available to MC Pro subscribers) for quarterly reads on global, regional, and market-specific views of the United States alongside average country affinity by sector. For those requiring higher-frequency monitoring in the context of a geopolitical crisis, or for those seeking to conduct brand-specific monitoring more generally, Morning Consult’s Intelligence platform offers daily data to help guide such efforts.

3. Global Trust (Consensus)

In business we trust. As we note in the just-published H2 2024 edition of our Global Trust and Governance Outlook, trust is essential for businesses to connect to investors, employees and consumers, and for government institutions to function. In H1 2024, global average trust in business leaders and large corporations declined across the board. In the last six months, however, trust in business leaders has stabilized at roughly net zero, meaning adults across the markets surveyed were about as likely to say they trusted business leaders as not.

Trust in large corporations meanwhile approached the tipping point beyond which the average global adult would be more likely than not to distrust them (or to trust them “a little” at best) and has continued to decline over the past six months, but began to show early signs of a potential stabilization in September. This is good news for global business, even if the margins are slim.

We previously noted that we viewed inflation, which weighs on consumer confidence and which some consumers may attribute to corporate greed, as one likely driver of declining corporate trust. The ongoing global moderation of inflation makes us believe that the recent stabilization in global trust in business is likely to continue.

The government picture is nevertheless less rosy. While trust in government shows similar trends, the average global adult is more likely to distrust government than not (or trust it just “a little”). And in contrast to corporate trust, the average share of global adults who say they trust their government is substantially below the majority mark.

In our view, this suggests a worrisome outlook for policymakers who we expect will continue to struggle with securing public buy-in for policy initiatives large and small, particularly in developed markets, which are prone to seeing lower trust levels than emerging markets. For those with upcoming elections — including Australia (which sees 47% trust), Canada (42%), and Germany (36%) — plan for these dynamics to disfavor incumbents at a time when their approval ratings are already underwater. 

4. U.S. Tariff Policy (Consensus)

Civic duties. The prevailing narrative in the media seems bent on convincing American consumers that they will pay for tariffs, continuously reminding them in article after article that president-elect Trump’s proposed tariffs would be inflationary. It turns out they are preaching to the choir. In our initial assessment of U.S. sentiment on tariffs, we find that U.S. voters are already convinced that consumers will ultimately foot the tariff bill.

At the same time, the largest share of voters think tariffs, when enacted in the United States, are primarily a protectionist tool that can save jobs and U.S. industry.

It’s this belief — which speaks to an acute risk of job loss — that voters seem to mentally weigh against the possible cost of somewhat higher prices to decide if tariffs will be good for the U.S. economy on balance. In some cases, they believe that the benefits outweigh the costs, particularly if the tariff rate seems low on the face of it, as with the 10% across-the-board tariffs that Trump has proposed. Other proposals which have higher rates but are more targeted, for example tariffs limited to Mexico or China, garner less support.

For U.S. companies that would be disadvantaged by further tariffs and anticipate seeking exemptions, focusing on where tariffs cost jobs in export-oriented industries is a good strategy. What is not a good strategy is assuming Trump won’t follow through on his promises. 

Consumers believe that he will, and we tend to agree. Trump’s longstanding support for tariffs coupled with executive powers that will facilitate their implementation, make additional restrictions almost a foregone conclusion. Industries that are not already preparing for this outcome should do so rapidly. 

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