Global
Day 1 or 100, Trump Is Threading the Public Opinion Needle on Ukraine
Key Takeaways
Trump repeatedly promised to end the war in Ukraine in a single day before taking office. His team is now citing longer timelines, such as 100 days.
Whatever the exact timing, U.S. and Western European adults increasingly have the end in sight, with growing shares believing the conflict will be resolved in the next six months.
At the same time, U.S. voters are now less averse to providing aid to Ukraine, perhaps because they trust the Trump administration not to send too much, given its vocal critique of the last administration’s perceived largesse. And voters, even Republicans, are averse to seeing the U.S. play the bully that strong-arms Ukrainians into sacrificing territory against their will.
Riding high on his post-election approval bump, and with Ukraine low down on U.S. voters’ list of foreign policy priorities, Trump can afford to take a beat on Ukraine and let his team find its way to a durable arrangement.
President Trump famously promised to end the war in Ukraine in a single day upon taking office. His team has since signaled that it is likely to take significantly longer than that, and has pointed to the 100-day mark. Still, his general message may have gotten through to many Americans, whose belief that the conflict would be resolved within six months has been rising since August 2024. European public opinion has also begun to show higher expectations of a relatively quick resolution, though Russian military advances may have contributed to these changes as well.
U.S. and European adults increasingly believe the war in Ukraine could end in the next six months
Voters have moved toward favoring aiding Ukraine since late 2023
In October 2023, 1 in 3 registered voters (and over 40% of Republicans) said they thought the United States was doing “too much” to help Ukraine counter Russia’s full-scale invasion, while only 15% said the help was “not enough.” Then-presidential candidate Trump tapped into this sentiment, repeatedly lambasting the Biden administration’s approach as ill-conceived from early on in the conflict. Since then, Republicans in Congress expressed a desire to pump the brakes, blocking an aid package in December 2023. U.S. aid allocations continued, but dropped from over 15 billion dollars in Q3 2022 to roughly 10 billion in Q3 2024. Europeans have been able to plug some of the gaps, keeping funds flowing during the 2023 congressional squabbles, for instance. But they will have to do much more going forward, now that U.S. aid looks likely to dry up.
Last month, fewer voters said the United States was doing the “right amount” or “too much” (29% for each) compared to the previous year, and more voters said Washington was not doing enough or that they weren’t sure of the appropriate amount of assistance. Republican voters have stayed consistent, with roughly the same share (43%) saying the United States was doing too much to help Ukraine. So overall, opinion on helping Ukraine has become more positive, but also less certain.
U.S. voters have become more amenable to helping Ukraine over the past year
Americans may not want to send more support, but they also don’t want to force Ukraine into a settlement that potentially favors Russia
The incoming Vice President J.D. Vance laid out a plan for Ukraine that involves major territorial concessions in line with Putin’s demands. And while most experts agree that a rapid end to the conflict in Ukraine would involve Kyiv losing some of the territory seized by Russia — especially territory like Crimea and the Donbas, which were seized in the long lead-up to the current full-scale invasion — U.S. voters seem unenthused by the idea of pressuring the underdog Ukrainians to the negotiating table and insisting they make territorial concessions. Even a plurality of Republicans dislike the idea of the United States insisting that Kyiv cede land to Moscow in exchange for peace.
U.S. voters of all political stripes balk at pushing Ukraine into giving up territory
A slower approach on Ukraine negotiations makes sense
The current slower approach that the Trump administration has signaled it will pursue is more likely to thread the needle of public opinion, including views among GOP constituents. Voters overall are now less averse to providing aid to Ukraine, perhaps because they trust the Trump administration not to send too much, given its vocal critique of the last administration’s perceived largesse. And even Republicans are averse to seeing Washington play the bully that strong-arms Ukraine into sacrificing territory against its will. Riding high on his post-election approval bump, and with Ukraine low down on voters’ list of foreign policy priorities, Trump can afford to take a beat on Ukraine, fulfilling other foreign policy promises right out of the gate, such as touting his role in the Gaza hostage deal and imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico.
Media narratives – and our data showing a post-election bump in the United States’ reputation in Russia — suggest Putin may have expected to easily cut a deal with Trump that would allow him to have his way in Ukraine. While territorial concessions, especially in Crimea and the Donbas, are still highly probable, Putin may find that U.S. voters and their chosen leader dislike the idea of throwing the plucky Ukrainians to the wolves, or in this case, to the Russian bear.
Sonnet Frisbie is the deputy head of political intelligence and leads Morning Consult’s geopolitical risk offering for Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Prior to joining Morning Consult, Sonnet spent over a decade at the U.S. State Department specializing in issues at the intersection of economics, commerce and political risk in Iraq, Central Europe and sub-Saharan Africa. She holds an MPP from the University of Chicago.
Follow her on Twitter @sonnetfrisbie. Interested in connecting with Sonnet to discuss her analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].