U.S. Foreign Policy Tracker
Morning Consult’s U.S. Foreign Policy Tracker follows Americans’ views of U.S. foreign policy, including which issues they find most important, whether public opinion skews toward isolationism or engagement, and whether voters favor multilateral solutions to global economic and military challenges or prefer to go it alone. The tracker pairs Morning Consult’s crosscutting U.S. Foreign Policy Sentiment Indexes — which measure voters’ attitudes toward isolationism and multilateralism — with topical data on Democrats’ and Republicans’ evolving views on U.S.-China and U.S.-E.U. relations, foreign trade and investment, and more to provide holistic, high-frequency insights into Americans’ foreign policy preferences. A methodological companion memo can be found here.
Read What Democrats and Republicans Expect From U.S. Foreign Policy for our forecast of where things are headed under a divided Congress, and sign up for Morning Consult Global, our daily geopolitical email briefing.
Key Takeaways
Republican voters’ concerns about China have reached new heights. The share who rank U.S.-China relations among America’s top five most pressing foreign policy priorities has risen 5 points since January (from 31% to 36%), marking a tracking high. Half of Republicans now think it is “very important” for the United States to address the issue, up from a tracking low of 39% last year.
Democratic voters’ support for global engagement continues to rise. Though a larger share still prefer isolationism, nearly a quarter of Democrats now express support for greater overseas engagement, marking a tracking high. The share is up 4 percentage points since the beginning of Q1 2023, and up 7 points from a Q3 2022 tracking low.
Shifting views on global military conflicts are to thank. The share of Democrats who support greater U.S. involvement in military conflicts overseas has risen by 10 percentage points since early Q1 2023 to a tracking high of 30%, and is up 15 points since last September. In a striking split, roughly equal shares of Democratic voters would prefer that the U.S. government increase and decrease its involvement in such conflicts (30% each), compared with 27% who support the status quo. The share of Democrats who support greater overseas troop deployments is also up 8 percentage points relative to early Q1.
Democrats’ enthusiasm for engagement does not extend to cross-border trade and capital flows. As of April, the shares of Democratic voters who support greater tariffs on foreign-made goods (41%) and barriers on inward foreign investment (37%) match earlier tracking highs, bringing Democrats’ views closer to those of GOP voters.
Top Issues
Americans’ Top Foreign Policy Issues
“Immigration” and “drug trafficking” items refer to flows into the United States. “Disinformation” refers specifically to efforts by foreign governments to influence U.S. politics. “Terrorism” and “cyberattacks” refer specifically to actions targeting the United States.
Americans’ Top Foreign Policy Issues: Side-by-Side Comparisons
“Immigration” and “drug trafficking” items refer to flows into the United States. “Disinformation” refers specifically to efforts by foreign governments to influence U.S. politics. “Terrorism” and “cyberattacks” refer specifically to actions targeting the United States
Isolationism and Engagement
Indexes of U.S. Isolationism and Engagement
The thematic issue areas, each composed of two data series, include (1) soft power and foreign aid, covering attitudes toward involvement in other countries’ affairs and foreign aid provision; (2) overseas military engagement, covering support for U.S. troop deployments and involvement in military conflicts; and (3) trade and investment policies, covering preferences toward tariffs on foreign goods and barriers to inward foreign investment. Each index is computed as a simple average of shares corresponding to response levels (isolationism, stability and engagement) across all six component data series. “Don’t know/No opinion” responses do not factor into the index calculations and are not shown here.
Isolationism and Engagement: Thematic Issue Areas
Involvement in Other Countries’ Affairs
Response categories — increase, neither increase nor decrease, and decrease — respectively connote engagement, stability and isolationism in the corresponding Morning Consult indexes. “Don’t know/No opinion” responses do not factor into the index calculations and are not shown here.
Overseas Troop Deployments
Response categories — increase, neither increase nor decrease, and decrease — respectively correspond to engagement, stability and isolationism in the corresponding Morning Consult indexes. “Don’t know/No opinion” responses do not factor into the index calculations and are not shown here.
Trade and Tariffs
Response categories — increase, neither increase nor decrease, and decrease — respectively correspond to isolationism, stability and engagement in the corresponding Morning Consult indexes. “Don’t know/No opinion” responses do not factor into the index calculations and are not shown here.
Indexes of U.S. Multilateralism and Unilateralism
The thematic issue areas, each composed of a single data series, address three distinct aspects of U.S. foreign policy, including (1) policy coordination via diplomatic forums, covering attitudes toward U.S. involvement in international organizations; (2) military policy coordination, covering attitudes toward addressing global military disputes in coordination with U.S. partners and allies as opposed to going it alone; and (3) economic policy coordination, covering the same attitudes in the context of global economic disputes. Each index is computed as a simple average of shares corresponding to response levels (multilateralism, stability and unilateralism) across all three component data series. “Don’t know/No opinion” responses do not factor into the index calculations and are not shown here.
Multilateralism and Unilateralism: Thematic Issue Areas
Involvement in International Organizations
Response categories — increase, neither increase nor decrease, and decrease — respectively connote multilateralism, stability and unilateralism in the corresponding Morning Consult indexes. “Don’t know/No opinion” responses do not factor into the index calculations and are not shown here.
Resolution of Military Disputes
Response categories — increase, neither increase nor decrease, and decrease — respectively correspond to multilateralism, stability, and unilateralism in the corresponding Morning Consult indices.
Resolution of Economic Disputes
Response categories — increase, neither increase nor decrease, and decrease — respectively connote multilateralism, stability and unilateralism in the corresponding Morning Consult indexes. “Don’t know/No opinion” responses do not factor into the index calculations and are not shown here.
Methodology
The U.S. Foreign Policy Tracker relies on data collected through Morning Consult’s proprietary survey research capabilities. Interviews are conducted online.
All data featured in the tracker derives from surveys conducted among representative samples of roughly 2,000 registered voters each, with unweighted margins of error of +/-2 percentage points. Data are weighted to approximate representative samples of U.S. voters.
Dates indicated in all charts correspond to the last day of survey fielding for each wave. Surveys were conducted weekly through Nov. 6, 2022, and monthly thereafter.
About Morning Consult
Morning Consult is a global decision intelligence company changing how modern leaders make smarter, faster, better decisions. The company pairs its proprietary high-frequency data with applied artificial intelligence to better inform decisions on what people think and how they will act. Learn more at morningconsult.com.
Email [email protected] to speak with a member of the Morning Consult team.
Jason I. McMann leads geopolitical risk analysis at Morning Consult. He leverages the company’s high-frequency survey data to advise clients on how to integrate geopolitical risk into their decision-making. Jason previously served as head of analytics at GeoQuant (now part of Fitch Solutions). He holds a Ph.D. from Princeton University’s Politics Department. Follow him on Twitter @jimcmann. Interested in connecting with Jason to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected]
