Musk’s Political Activities Tarnish Tesla, but not Everywhere
Key Takeaways
Tesla’s brand favorability has been on the decline in Europe, Canada and the United States since mid-2022.
While it is difficult to fully untangle all of the variables impacting the brand — including broader EV market dynamics, pricing and regulatory issues, and product rollout — the timing of recent shifts in key metrics supports the idea that Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s extracurricular activities as part of the Trump administration are impacting Tesla’s brand.
European markets in particular have seen large declines in both brand favorability and reported sales, even as Musk has waded into the European political fray, and sales in Canada have dropped amid broader anger at the Trump administration.
The U.S. market is more nuanced, with more voters than not viewing Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency as effective in cutting government spending, even as 40% of them have very negative views of Musk himself. Favorability of Tesla in the United States has not seen a recent across-the-board drop.
But given the polarized U.S. political climate, Musk may be turning off those U.S. consumers most likely to buy a Tesla. Among high-income consumers who say they plan to purchase an EV in the future, Tesla now ranks lower compared with competitors than it did one year ago, falling from the third to sixth spot.
Meanwhile in China, Tesla’s image has rebounded from lows in 2022 and 2023. It is now in line with other major foreign automotive brands — a potential piece of good news if the glum Chinese economy cheers up in the near future. Musk’s proximity to Trump could be a boon for Tesla in China, where leverage with the state apparatus is a major plus, but it could also embroil Tesla in geopolitical horse trading.
Tesla’s brand favorability has declined across major European markets, in Canada and in the United States over the last three years. This may be due to a number of factors, including more robust competition in the EV market, Tesla’s slow rollout of an update to its popular model Y, a delayed robotaxi play, and delays in implementing full self-driving capabilities.
However, analysts and many consumers also attribute some of the decline to CEO Elon Musk’s public political persona. While some consumers, particularly on the right, like what Musk is doing (see the section on the United States below), in general views of Tesla have declined in Europe and North America since Musk began his takeover of Twitter in 2022. The last six weeks have been particularly dramatic as Musk has taken a major role in President Trump’s administration as the head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
Tesla’s declining brand favorability in Europe and Canada accelerated as Musk joined the Trump administration
The declines in net favorability for Tesla have been particularly dramatic in Western Europe and Canada. In Canada, favorability of Tesla fell over 30 points from peak to trough since early 2024. Meanwhile In France and Germany, the drop was around 15 and 18 points, respectively.
Tesla's brand favorability sees a steep dip in Europe and Canada coinciding with Musk's recent political activities
When it comes to disentangling what may have European consumers upset with Tesla’s CEO, there is a lot to choose from. Many Germans took exception to Musk’s vocal support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in the leadup to Feb. 23 general elections. In the United Kingdom, Prime Minister Keir Starmer may be largely unpopular, but many Brits may also not appreciate a foreigner openly calling for his ouster. The French government has called on the European Union to use tools at its disposal under the Digital Services Act (DSA) to censure Musk’s comments. And to top it all off, Europeans’ ire at the Trump administration more broadly may also be percolating through to their feelings about U.S. brands, especially one so closely tied to the president. While Musk has not been front and center in Trump’s tariff plans or his calls to annex of Canada, there is nevertheless a petition to revoke his Canadian citizenship.
European market impact
While not a source of growth, sources put Europe’s share of Tesla’s overall 2024 sales at a not insignificant 21%. But there are some compelling signs that Musk’s political activity might be contributing to Tesla’s decline relative to competitors in the region. In tandem with our data on falling brand perception, Tesla sales in Europe and Canada have been falling precipitously in recent weeks.
- Canada: January sales dropped 70% m/m
- France: January registrations fell by 63% y/y
- Germany: January sales dropped by nearly 60% y/y amid a 53.5% y/y increase in EV registrations
- United Kingdom: January sales dropped by 12% y/y amid a 42% y/y increase in EV sales
Other European markets where we don’t track Tesla’s brand reputation have also seen declines in Tesla sales in January year-on-year, including the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and Norway.
Tesla’s slide should definitely not be fully attributed to Musk’s politics. Some consumers may be delaying buying a Tesla until the updated model Y is released. There are also market-specific issues, such as Canada’s pause of the iZEV rebate and Tesla’s price hikes in that market, or Germany’s removal of its EV rebate in late 2023. EVs in general have seen sluggish sales in recent years. However, in several of these markets EV sales grew in January, bucking recent trends even as Tesla continued to drop.
Musk has a lot of haters in the United States, but voters view DOGE as more effective than not
Meanwhile, on the other side of the Atlantic, the picture is understandably more complex, given that many U.S. voters strongly support Trump’s recent actions as well as Musk’s cost-cutting efforts. As of Jan. 24, 43% of registered voters said they had a favorable opinion of Musk, compared to 49% who had a negative opinion. However, 2 out of 5 U.S. voters said they had a very unfavorable opinion of Musk. At the same time, 44% of voters say the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, has been effective at reducing government spending, while only 38% said otherwise. This indicates that some of Musk’s haters may be less negative about DOGE’s mission, even if they may not love the specific cuts.
Elon Musk has a lot of haters, but DOGE is viewed as more effective than not
Still, Tesla is losing market share in the United States: Growth of EV sales continued in 2024 (albeit at a slower pace than in recent years), while Tesla posted a 5.6% decline in sales. Other automakers like Ford, Kia and Honda meanwhile increased their U.S. sales.
Tesla has seen its reputation decline relative to traditional automakers in the United States, but by a smaller amount than in Canada and Western Europe (roughly 10 points over 2024) and without the sharp post-election drop.
U.S. consumers' views of Tesla see no major shift around Musk's DOGE activities
It bears repeating that Musk’s public image is not solely to blame. The share of consumers saying they want to buy an EV has declined in absolute terms in recent years. Hyper competition is eroding Tesla’s first-mover advantage in the U.S. market, in addition to the other factors noted above: delayed robotaxi ambitions and the model Y’s impending update. The Trump administration’s pledge to kill Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act would further weigh on the market — and on Tesla in particular, whose Model 3 and Model Y qualify under the more stringent Biden-era requirements — as the $7,500 tax credit for EVs would die along with it.
American EV enthusiasts are now more tepid on Tesla
Some Tesla models continued to be top sellers in the U.S. market in January. But a key forward-looking indicator raises questions about their relative appeal. If we look only among an audience that includes high-income households (with income over $100,000) who said they plan to purchase an EV, 30% of them over the last month said they are considering a Tesla, placing the brand 6th out of the major automotive brands we track. But one year prior, that number was 32%, placing Tesla at #3.
Tesla has lower relative purchasing consideration among high-income future EV owners compared with one year ago
The Chinese market is a possible future bright spot, but Tesla risks becoming a geopolitical pawn
Meanwhile in China, the exact opposite can be seen. The brand was plagued by local scandals throughout 2022 including scrutiny over its working conditions, and the company suing a woman whose parents were injured in a Tesla crash for defamation. Much was done to repair this relationship, with Musk suggesting Taiwan should become a Chinese ”special administrative zone” and toeing the line on Chinese regulatory requirements while expressing admiration for Beijing's economic achievements. The repair of Tesla’s image in China largely preceded Musk’s 2024 embrace of Trump in the presidential race and subsequent heading of DOGE. It’s unclear if Musk’s political activities have helped Tesla’s brand in China, but they certainly haven’t hurt.
Chinese consumers have warmed to Tesla in recent years, bringing its favorability in line with other major foreign automotive brands
The Chinese market is massive and important for Tesla. But despite the rebound in sentiment, sales dropped year-over-year in the current glum macroeconomic climate. At the same time, Chinese EV brands like BYD are going toe to toe with Tesla in China and abroad, and Tesla’s production in China for export has faced challenges such as European tariffs on Chinese auto exports.
Still, China is a potential bright spot for Tesla and Musk. Stocks rose earlier this week on news from Bloomberg that Tesla would soon deploy full self driving (FSD) in China, but later sank on rumors the regulatory approval may be postponed, and could be used as a bargaining chip with the Trump administration given Musk’s role. Musk’s proximity to Trump could be a boon in China, where leverage with the state apparatus is a major plus, but it could also embroil Tesla in geopolitical horse trading.
Le Tesla, c’est moi
While it is difficult to tease out the magnitude of the impact of Musk’s public image on that of Tesla relative to other factors like the competitive landscape or regulatory impacts, consumers and competitors are pointing to Musk’s extracurricular activities as one aspect of the brand’s current struggles. It’s impossible to separate Tesla’s charismatic front man from its brand reputation globally, whether in Europe or California, where politics appears to be turning future EV owners off of Teslas, or in China, where Tesla may be viewed as a bargaining chip in the trade war.
Our prior research indicates that consumers have short memories once the news cycle moves on. Brand crises often fade quickly from mind once they are out of sight. Should Musk recede from public view, or no longer be so closely tied to Tesla, we would anticipate that other factors affecting views of Tesla’s brand would quickly reassert themselves in the public psyche. The likelihood of that, however, seems vanishingly small.
Sonnet Frisbie is the deputy head of political intelligence and leads Morning Consult’s geopolitical risk offering for Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Prior to joining Morning Consult, Sonnet spent over a decade at the U.S. State Department specializing in issues at the intersection of economics, commerce and political risk in Iraq, Central Europe and sub-Saharan Africa. She holds an MPP from the University of Chicago.
Follow her on Twitter @sonnetfrisbie. Interested in connecting with Sonnet to discuss her analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].