Morning Consult Counter/Consensus: Global Political Risk Briefing, April 18, 2024

1. Israel (Counter)

I’d like to use a lifeline: Iran’s April 13 missile attack on Israel may press pause temporarily on public criticism of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by Israel’s allies, but it is far from clear that domestic opinion will rally around the embattled chief executive. 

While public views of Israel’s trajectory did see the expected solidarity bump in the aftermath of Hamas’ October 7, 2023 attacks, Netanyahu himself did not see a lift in his approval rating. More recently, his approval slid in early March to stabilize around -45 points. But in the days since the attack, our data shows no major shifts — either positive or negative — in Netanyahu’s approval rating. 

While it’s too early to say definitively whether Israelis will rally to Netanyahu in the wake of Iran’s attacks, we find it unlikely based on their response to the events of October 7. Instead, we expect to see a bump in their perceptions of the country’s trajectory, while Netanyahu continues to flounder. 

2. Peru (Consensus)

Rolexposé: Pricey timepieces are at the center of a scandal threatening Peru’s presidency. Media reports that President Dina Boluarte — a former public servant with a current annual salary just above $4,000 — owned a number of Rolex watches retailing between $14,000-25,000 led the national police to raid her house on April 29. The raid got Peruvians’ attention: Boluarte’s approval sank to tracking lows around -65 points just afterwards. 

Despite her abysmal approval rating, Boluarte survived the scandal’s immediate fallout when her Prime Minister, Gustavo Adrianzen, won a confidence vote on April 3. She also survived two previous impeachment attempts due to her strategic alliances with Peru’s right-wing parties: The opposition does not currently have the 52 votes it would need to move an impeachment motion to discussion in congress, much less the 87 votes needed for impeachment. 

But as public disillusionment with her presidency grows, we see a medium-term threat in the possibility for new waves of disruptive and violent protests. Recent Peruvian history has shown that police interventions during protests resulting in protester deaths are a flashpoint for public outcry, particularly in indigenous communities. While elections are not scheduled until 2026, we expect a long hard road for Boluarte’s administration characterized by marked political instability and pronounced popular unrest until then. 

3. Sino-German Relations (Consensus)

Bloc party? German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s visit to China this past week — his first since November 2022 — is unlikely to do bilateral relations any favors: Much of the visit was spent sparring over German allegations of surplus industrial capacity, mirroring U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s recent visit. But Scholz’s hawkishness, which marks a departure from former Chancellor Merkel’s softer touch, is likely to resonate at home: The overwhelming majority of German adults hold unfavorable views of China, resulting in sharply negative net favorability overall and suggesting popular constraints on how far a bilateral reconciliation could go, barring major economic policy concessions from China.

Our data suggests the same is true across much of Western Europe, where German views are more norm than outlier nowadays. Most countries in the region similarly exhibit net negative favorability toward China, corresponding to the countries shaded in red in the chart below. 

The consensus in Washington is that the European Union has come closer to the United States’ approach on economic statecraft vis-a-vis Beijing. Our data indicates this trend — and German concerns about surplus capacity — are likely to continue, especially as China’s economic relationship with the West remains an election issue on both sides of the Atlantic. 

4. Malaysia (Consensus)

Prime minister for a day? Our data affirms the prevailing narrative that popular support for incumbent Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is indeed on shaky ground: His net approval rating has fallen approximately 60 points from peak to trough since his inauguration in November 2022. 

What’s striking relative to prevailing media commentary — which has cited a variety of missteps to explain Anwar’s reversal of fortunes — is that no particular incident appears to have set off the decline, which has been largely secular since the start of his administration. Three of the more commonly cited incidents include the withdrawal of graft charges against Deputy Prime Minister Ahmad Zahid Hamidi on September 4 and related protests on the 16th, the halving of jail time for former Prime Minister Najib Razak on February 2 and ensuing protests on the 26th, and the advancement of proposed constitutional amendments on citizenship for foundlings in March (since abandoned). And yet, our data shows a largely secular downtrend in Anwar’s approval rating pre-dating these events, with unclear knock-on effects for each.

In our view, these trends suggest a broader array of ills driving popular discontent that will make it hard for Anwar to course-correct. But with Malaysia’s new king speaking out forcefully against political instability after years of short-lived prime ministerships, we expect the country’s political mavericks to limit their near-term politicking, and we see Anwar muddling through for the foreseeable future.

Our forthcoming APAC Leader Approval and Country Trajectory Outlook (see the previous version here) is slated to publish next week and will offer a more detailed treatment of the economic and political drivers of these dynamics, along with coverage of recent developments in South Korea and Thailand.