Harris Performs Better in Swing-States Than Biden Did — Especially in Michigan

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Vice President Kamala Harris performs better against former President Donald Trump than President Joe Biden did across the swing-state map, according to Morning Consult’s monthly surveys conducted for Bloomberg News.

Harris’ improvements on Biden — driven by young people, Democrats, independents and some voters of color — solidify a reset in the campaign after the incumbent’s historic decision to end his re-election bid, as shown in our tracking of the nascent contest nationwide.

State of the swing-state race

The latest surveys show Harris narrowly leads Trump inside the surveys’ margins of error in Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin, while she appears stronger against Trump in Michigan than Biden ever was. Trump, on the other hand, holds small leads in North Carolina and Pennsylvania, while the two are tied in Georgia.

In each of the seven 2024 battlegrounds tested except Pennsylvania, Harris has a higher level of support than Biden ever received — a finding most acute in Michigan, where our survey shows majority backing for the presumptive Democratic nominee for the first time.

Harris’ gains in Michigan, which put her in the lead just outside the sample’s margin of error, come amid an increase in support among groups with whom Biden was underperforming. While Biden trailed among Michigan’s youngest voters, Harris now leads Trump by double-digits among these voters. 

Harris also enters the contest with more backing than Biden received in our previous survey among Michigan’s Democrats and has widened her party’s advantage among the state’s independent voters.

These shifts in favor of the new face of the Democratic Party in 2024 are similar to our findings among the larger swing-state electorate, which show combined results from the seven battleground states.

Across the swing-state map, Harris outshines Biden’s previous standing among voters ages 18-34 (from 43% for him to 52% for her), Black voters (from 68% to 75%) and independents (from 40% to 45%). All of these contribute to her backing among 91% of swing-state voters who cast a ballot for Biden in 2020 — outpacing his 87% in our previous survey. 

Notably, Trump has seen his own standing go largely unchanged after the assassination attempt on his life and the Republican National Convention, as fewer voters said they wouldn’t vote or were unsure who they would back. 

Harris’ swing-state favorability has strengthened

The new presumptive Democratic nominee’s improving fortunes among the swing-state electorate comes as Harris has seen an increase in positive sentiment — and a strengthening of views about her — since our previous survey. 

According to the latest survey, 46% of swing-state voters view Harris favorably, up 5 points from the earlier survey, while the share with unfavorable views fell from 53% to 50%. That positive directional movement mirrors a surge in positive views among the larger national electorate, and comes as the strength of her favorability grew: 30% of voters now hold “very favorable” opinions, up from 21% before Biden dropped his bid.  

Trump saw a more modest improvement in sentiment about himself but remains more unpopular than Harris on a net basis, while views about Biden went unchanged over the course of July. 

The down-ballot 

Along with the Democrats’ improved standing in the top-of-the-ticket contest in the latest survey, the party also appears to be on more solid ground in lower-tier races than it was three months ago.

Like in the presidential race, the average Democratic congressional candidate holds a slight generic ballot advantage in Arizona and Nevada — and a bigger one in Michigan. In Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, the average Republican candidate holds a minor advantage over their generic Democratic challenger, while no party has an advantage by the metric in Wisconsin.

The bottom line

Harris’ improved standing — both nationally and in the swing states — comes amid a surge of positive press attention and a rallying around the flag effort among Democrats, as evidenced elsewhere by her favorability and buzz ratings in our 2024 general election tracker and surrogate efforts from popular Michigan Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and others. Like that national polling, Harris’ swing-state standing isn’t improving alongside a Trump decline; rather, fewer voters now suggest they’d sit on the sidelines or are uncertain about who they’ll back.

At the swing-state level, it is possible — and may indeed be likely — that our Michigan numbers tighten as opinions solidify when Trump and his allies spend time and money attacking Harris there and in other swing states. 

But one thing is abundantly clear at this time: While Biden’s decision to drop his bid has cleared the way for Harris’ ascent and has put the Democratic Party on better footing against Trump across much of the swing-state map, it’s worth keeping in mind that the presumptive nominee’s advantages remain narrow, with several days to go before the Democratic National Convention and several weeks more before voting begins.