Biden Has No Advantage Over Trump Across the Swing-State Map

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With the Super Tuesday contests looking set to propel Donald Trump’s status as the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, the former president is maintaining his advantage over President Joe Biden across the swing-state map.

There are signs that immigration continues to weigh on the incumbent as actors across Washington — regardless of their political affiliation — are taking on more blame for the crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border. But swing-state voters’ perceptions of both major party candidates may weigh even more heavily, as large shares of voters express concerns about the age of both men — though many see Trump as more dangerous.

State of the 2024 presidential race

According to Morning Consult’s February surveys on behalf of Bloomberg News, Trump holds leads over Biden in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Trump’s lead is the widest we’ve measured since October in Arizona and Pennsylvania, matching his 6 percentage point advantages in Georgia and Nevada — all of which were pivotal to Biden’s Electoral College victory in 2020. And while Trump is maintaining a big advantage in North Carolina (the most Republican-friendly of the states included in the survey), his lead is narrowest in the Upper Midwest, where Wisconsin and Michigan voters are almost evenly split.

In those two states, the surveys show Biden has his smallest disadvantage relative to Trump among their original 2020 backers and is competitive among independent voters. This echoes previous findings that show Biden can make up more ground this year if he can reignite those who voted for him four years ago.

Immigration increasingly on swing-state voters’ minds

Across the swing-state map, our fifth round of monthly surveys have shown sentiment about the economy is starting to improve, albeit slightly. Since October, the share who said the economy is on the wrong track fell from 74% to 69% in an aggregate look at the seven states, while the share who see inflation on the rise has dropped from 76% to 72% as more voters perceive price stability.

This is in line with improving economic perceptions at the national level, which appears to have opened up a notable chunk of voters in key battleground states to alter the No. 1 issue that’s top of mind for this November.

According to our latest survey, 35% of voters said the economy is the single most important issue when deciding how to vote in this year’s presidential election, down from 39% in October, while the share of voters citing immigration has increased from 9% to 16%. This places immigration above any of the other 16 issues tested, including major topics of Beltway conversation such as abortion and democracy.  

The 7-point boost was relatively consistent across each of the states tested, from the sole border state in the mix (Arizona) to those further from it such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. This aligns with our findings at the national level that more voters than ever before in Biden’s or Trump’s presidency see a crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border. 

The increasing salience of immigration is not good political turf for Biden. In the seven swing states, Biden continues to receive the bulk of the blame for the increase in migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border.

But during a month in which House Republicans torpedoed the Senate’s bipartisan border deal at Trump’s urging, the blame placed on conditions abroad has decreased, while the blame for Biden and other domestic political actors — Democratic and Republican — increased across the 2024 battleground.

In the seven-state composite survey, the share of voters blaming Biden increased from 41% to 44% (up 3 points), compared with a 4-point increase in blame for Democrats in Congress (to 39%), a 5-point boost in attribution to congressional Republicans (to 19%) and a 4-point growth in the onus placed on the Trump administration (to 18%).

Despite the increase in blame on Republicans, voters in Arizona are still more than twice as likely to blame Biden or his Democratic colleagues on the Hill for the surge in migration as they are congressional Republicans or his predecessor. This indicates that even in this border state where immigration is top of mind for 21% of the electorate — higher than any other swing state — the intricacies of Capitol Hill negotiations aren’t breaking through, or at least that voters aren’t going to give Biden a pass for the problem unfolding on his watch.  

How swing-state voters perceive Biden’s age

Along with immigration, the issue of Biden’s octogenarian status has taken on even more prominence following the release in February of a special counsel report about his handling of classified documents after his vice presidential tenure which included jarring asides about his mental abilities.

At the national level, the report did almost nothing to change voters’ perceptions about his age, mental fitness or health, but things were already bad for the president on this front. Similarly at the swing-state level, there’s some good news and some bad news.

The bad news for Biden is that, when forced to pick between the two expected nominees, the bulk of swing-state voters (44%) agree he is too old, roughly a quarter (26%) see him as mentally fit and even fewer (19%) perceive him to be in good health.

The good news for Biden is that many voters also ascribe these traits to Trump by selecting the “both” option, giving him an opening to attack his likely rival as he did when he told the late-night host Seth Meyers, “he’s about as old as I am,” or when his campaign highlights the former president’s own verbal missteps.

On the age question, 38% of all swing-state voters — and the bulk of those in Wisconsin — see both he and Trump as too old. Another quarter of swing-state voters say neither major-party nominee is mentally fit. Both figures include large shares of voters who are undecided, as well as the larger crop of voters who view both of them unfavorably, known as the double-haters.

Trump, on the other hand, is seen as “dangerous” by the bulk of the swing-state electorate (45%), with fewer voters in each state ascribing the term to Biden or both of them equally.

The bottom line

Biden’s standing on the matters of immigration or even his age do not fit neatly with whom voters are backing: Chunks of his own supporters question his mental fitness and health — and many also hold him responsible for the border situation that’s taken up a more prominent place this campaign cycle.

As a real choice between two candidates is clarified over the coming months, the five waves of data suggests that Trump’s best shot at another term would be to focus on the issues where Biden has a serious disadvantage.

On the other hand, our data shows the Biden campaign has a real opportunity to try to nullify the senility issue and remind his 2020 coalition of the dangers they saw four years ago as Trump’s alleged criminality takes center stage between now and Election Day.