Many Voters Blame Rhetoric, Media and Even Trump Himself for Conditions That Caused Assassination Attempt

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Amid high fears of more violence surrounding the 2024 presidential election, most voters — Democrats and Republicans — are pointing their fingers at America’s fiery political rhetoric for helping to develop the environment that led to the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump, while many also blame the Republican nominee himself.

According to a Morning Consult survey conducted Monday, just two days after Trump’s ear was grazed by a bullet and a supporter of his was killed at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania, 3 in 5 voters said American political rhetoric is responsible for the political environment that led to the attack, just shy of the share who said the same of the shooter’s own mental health condition.

Notably, 38% of voters said Trump was to blame for the violent moment in American politics, higher than the share who put the responsibility on Biden (29%), the Republican Party (31%) or the Democratic Party (35%).

As the country enters the traditional kick-off of the campaign season with the beginning of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, almost all voters are expressing concerns that there will be move violence either before or after the November election.

Over half of voters, including 53% of Biden’s backers and 52% of Trump’s supporters, said they were “very concerned” about election-related violence this year, while roughly 2 in 5 said they were “somewhat concerned,” with little divide based on candidate support.

When voters were asked how they felt about the shooting itself, there were larger partisan divides on a range of descriptors — though Biden’s and Trump’s supporters were most likely to gravitate around emotions such as being “worried,” “angry” and “scared.”

Even on the common top descriptors between the two major party candidates’ supporters, our survey found wide gaps — most notably when it comes to anger. Four in 5 Trump-backers said they were angry following the July 13 shooting, compared with 37% of Biden backers, suggesting the matter could be highly motivating for the former president given the past electoral power of the emotion.

Awareness of events

News of Trump’s attempted assassination had the highest immediate salience of any event we have tested so far this year, with 2 in 3 voters reporting that they had seen, read or heard “a lot” about it by Monday.

The bulk of the electorate also reported hearing a lot about a bloodied Trump pumping his fist and leading a chant of “fight” as he was escorted off the Pennsylvania stage by U.S. Secret Service agents (56%), including nearly 2 in 3 Republicans.

Fewer voters heard a lot about Biden’s Oval Office address, where he called on Americans to reject political violence after directing his administration to conduct a review of the security failure at Trump’s rally, but he’s still getting good marks for his handling of the matter.

A majority of voters (58%), including more than a third of Trump supporters, approve of Biden’s handling of Trump’s attempted assassination, nearly identical to the share of those who approve of Trump’s own response to his attack.

Fewer voters (49%) approve of how the Secret Service has responded to the events, with Trump’s backers almost evenly divided on the matter amid questions about how a gunman was able to get so close to their chosen candidate.

As online conspiracies swirl about the question, a not-insignificant share of voters appear to be dabbling in theories of a ruse. And contrary to many others, this one appears largely driven by Biden’s supporters.

Roughly 1 in 5 voters said they find it credible that the shooting was staged and not intended to kill Trump, including a third of Biden’s supporters and 12% of those who back Trump.  The majority of voters (62%) said the unsubstantiated notion is not credible as the Biden administration works to investigate the matter in advance of a public report as promised by the president. 

The bottom line 

The political impact of the latest dramatic, historic moment in American politics will take time to play out: Our latest quick-turn survey found similar numbers to our daily tracking of the contest over the weekend, which showed Trump maintaining a slight advantage over Biden. 

But our latest survey makes one thing clear: The electorate is fearful of more violence, and blames the way politicians — and indeed Trump, a victim of the latest political violence — are talking about it. This signals voters’ desire for politicians to turn down the heat on each other, even if fear and anger continue to work and motivate them to show up at the polls.