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Morning Consult | Bloomberg News Partnership Survey: Biden’s and Trump’s Ballot Performance as of Early December 2023
Decision intelligence company Morning Consult, on behalf of Bloomberg News, is conducting a monthly seven-state study in 2024 political swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) to uncover where voters stand on key issues surrounding the presidential election.
The findings below reflect data at the state level for the third wave of this study. Also see results from the first (Oct. 5-10) and second waves (Oct. 30-Nov. 7).
Key Takeaways
Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in all seven surveyed 2024 swing states, with Biden losing the 1 percentage-point lead over Trump he had in Michigan last month. Trump leads in each state as follows: Arizona (+3 points), Georgia (+7 points), Michigan (+4 points), Nevada (+5 points), North Carolina (+11 points), Pennsylvania (+1 point) and Wisconsin (+6 points). With the exception of Georgia and North Carolina, these results fall within each state’s margin of error. These results are from a ballot listing President Joe Biden, former President Donald Trump, and third-party candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West and Jill Stein, as well as options for respondents to choose an unlisted candidate, answer “don’t know/no opinion” or say they wouldn’t vote. Jill Stein was added to this ballot question since the last wave of this study, though just 1% of voters in Michigan — the only state to change its leaning from Biden to Trump — backed her.
On this ballot, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is supported by roughly 1 in 10 voters in each swing state, while 1-2% of voters in each state support Cornel West, 1-3% support Jill Stein, and 1-3% support a candidate who wasn’t listed.
When third-party candidates are removed from the ballot, Biden continues to trail Trump in all seven states, though it does bring Georgia’s race to within the state’s margin of error (+6).
The economy and health care are the only two issues of those surveyed that at least 6 in 10 voters in each swing state deem “very” important in deciding who to vote for in the November 2024 presidential election. Trump has a clear lead with swing-state voters when it comes to the economy — a higher share of voters in each of the swing states say they trust Trump on this issue more than Biden. The picture is more mixed for health care. Though all differences fall within each state’s margin of error, in five of the seven swing states, Biden has a slight edge over Trump on this issue (+1 point in Arizona, +7 in Michigan, +3 in Nevada, +4 in Pennsylvania and +4 in Wisconsin). Trump has the edge in the remaining two (+1 in Georgia and +5 in North Carolina).
To see what voters in each swing state are prioritizing on the 2024 ballot and their trust in Biden vs. Trump to handle each issue, download the data files below.
Data Downloads
To look at the full list of questions and responses by voters in each swing state, download the data files above.
Methodology
This survey, which identifies key issues in the 2024 election and measures how much swing state voters trust Biden vs. Trump on these issues and how Biden vs. Trump perform on swing state ballots, was conducted from Nov. 27-Dec. 6, 2023, among a sample of 4,935 registered voters across seven 2024 political swing states: 796 registered voters in Arizona, 801 in Georgia, 703 in Michigan, 451 in Nevada, 704 in North Carolina, 799 in Pennsylvania and 681 in Wisconsin. The interviews were conducted online, and the data for each state was weighted to approximate a target sample of registered voters in the respective state based on gender, age, race, marital status, home ownership and 2020 presidential vote. The margin of error for the full survey is +/-3 points in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania, +/-4 points in Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin and +/-5 points in Nevada.
Interested in connecting with a member of the Morning Consult team regarding our recent data and analysis? Email [email protected].
