Harris Extends Lead Over Trump After First Presidential Debate

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Vice President Kamala Harris has extended her lead in the 2024 presidential contest following her first debate Tuesday with former President Donald Trump, according to Morning Consult’s ongoing national tracking of the race.

Our one-day survey conducted on Wednesday among 3,317 likely voters found the Democratic nominee leading her Republican counterpart 50% to 45%. The 5-percentage-point margin represents a slight improvement on her 3-and 4-point leads in our surveys conducted in the lead-up to the debate, though the shift was within the surveys’ margins of error. 

In the latest survey, Harris continues to boast support from the vast majority of Democrats (94%) and voters who backed President Joe Biden in 2020 (92%), and holds a slight lead over Trump among independent voters (46% to 40%). Those figures are all in line with our surveys conducted ahead of the debate.

What it means for November

It’s too early to say whether Harris’ debate performance is the key driver of our latest head-to-head numbers, as our short-term trends suggest she was already building momentum ahead of Tuesday’s televised match-up. 

What’s clearer is that Harris’ debate performance will help her sustain that momentum, keeping her  in the driver’s seat of a close contest that is very likely to be decided by tens of thousands of voters in a few key swing states. 

Heading into Tuesday night, our latest state-level tracking showed Harris with identical 49%-46% leads over Trump among likely voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Those advantages, all within the margin of error, would secure the presidency for her. 

Based on what we’re seeing at the national level, we expect her to maintain those advantages in the aftermath of the debate.