Trump Receives Record-High Support Ahead of New Hampshire Primary

73% of potential Republican primary voters back Donald Trump for nomination after Iowa caucuses
Morning Consult Logo
Share of potential GOP primary voters who said they would vote for the following if the 2024 presidential nominating contest were held in their state today.

Surveys conducted Jan. 11-13, 2024, and Jan. 17, 2024, among at least 1,119 potential Republican primary voters, with unweighted margins of error of up to +/-3 percentage points.

January 18, 2024 at 3:05 pm UTC

Sign up to get the latest data and analysis on how business, politics and economics intersect around the world.

Donald Trump has posted his highest level of support in our tracking of the race for the Republican Party’s 2024 presidential nomination following the Iowa caucuses and the withdrawal of two other candidates. 

According to our new survey conducted Wednesday, Jan. 17, 73% of potential Republican primary voters support the former president’s bid for re-nomination. That’s up from 69% in surveys conducted before the first-in-the-nation Republican nominating contest on Jan. 15 and the suspension of bids by entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson.

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has strengthened her second-place position over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, though the gap between them is narrow and the improvement has been marginal for both remaining contenders over the past few days. 

Trump remains weakest among the oldest voters (63% support) and the college educated (64% support). Haley and DeSantis continue to split the remainder among those groups.

The bottom line

The latest data shows Trump continuing to consolidate support from the party’s electorate as the field shrinks, in line with our ongoing tracking of the Republican contest. That tracking suggests Trump could further grow his backing moving forward given how he has been the second choice of more voters than not who are supporting someone else in the contest.

DeSantis’ second-place finish in Iowa did little to boost nationwide enthusiasm for him — suggesting similar placements by he or Haley in the upcoming contests may do little to generate momentum for either of their bids.

A headshot photograph of Eli Yokley
Eli Yokley
U.S. Politics Analyst

Eli Yokley is Morning Consult’s U.S. politics analyst. Eli joined Morning Consult in 2016 from Roll Call, where he reported on House and Senate campaigns after five years of covering state-level politics in the Show Me State while studying at the University of Missouri in Columbia, including contributions to The New York Times, Politico and The Daily Beast. Follow him on Twitter @eyokley. Interested in connecting with Eli to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].

We want to hear from you. Reach out to this author or your Morning Consult team with any questions or comments.Contact Us