Tracking the 2024 Republican Primary
Survey conducted Dec. 1-3, 2023, among 3,526 potential Republican primary voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points.
Former President Donald Trump began his presidential campaign with the bulk of the Republican electorate behind him, and a number of contenders are looking to put his grip to the test ahead of the 2024 nominating contests. Morning Consult surveys are tracking the Republican primary electorate’s views of Trump and other declared candidates. For our ongoing tracking of the broader contest shaping up between Trump and President Joe Biden, go to our 2024 General Election Tracker.
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Key Takeaways
Trump holds a big lead: Trump leads Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis by 53 percentage points among potential GOP primary voters, 66% to 13%, just shy of his record advantage. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is in third place with 10% support, tying her record high, followed by entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who has 6% support.
Burgum drops bid with no support: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, who suspended his campaign on Monday, left the race with 0% backing following six months on the campaign trail. Relatively few potential Republican primary voters took note of his campaign: In our latest survey, 86% of potential GOP primary voters said they had not recently heard anything about him, and 42% said they have never heard of him.
A plurality of non-Trump supporters say he’s their second choice: Roughly 3 in 10 potential GOP primary voters who support someone other than Trump (31%) said the former president would be their second choice. Such voters make up roughly 10% of the GOP’s expected electorate, suggesting that the former president’s support could continue to grow if lower-polling contenders drop their bids.
About Morning Consult's Capabilities
Where does this data come from? We survey thousands of U.S. voters every day, enabling daily tracking of nearly 1,200 Republican primary voters ahead of Election Day.
Why survey daily? High-frequency survey research allows us to generate larger sample sizes and shed light on key demographic groups, with more consistency and stability. Scroll below for more on our methodology.
Tracking Republicans’ 2024 Primary Support Over Time
Data points reflect three-day moving averages of at least 2,476 potential Republican primary voters, with unweighted margins of error of +/-1 to 2 percentage points.
- The bulk of the GOP’s electorate (66%) would back Trump if the primary or caucus were held in their state today, just shy of a record-high of 67% reached last month. DeSantis, the No. 2 contender, is supported by 13% of potential GOP primary voters.
- Haley is backed by 10% of the party’s potential voters, while Ramaswamy is backed by 6%. They are followed by former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who has 3% support, and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, who has 0% backing.
Second Choices: Where GOP Primary Voters Could Migrate
Survey conducted Dec. 1-3, 2023, among 3,526 potential Republican primary voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 to 3 percentage points for responses shown.
- DeSantis is the second choice of 41% of potential GOP primary voters who are supporting Trump, followed by 21% who would back Ramaswamy and 13% who would back Haley.
- Roughly 3 in 10 potential Republican primary voters (31%) who do not support Trump as their first choice said he is their second choice, followed by 19% who said Haley and 18% who said DeSantis.
- Nearly 1 in 5 Trump supporters (18%) said they do not know where their loyalties would fall if Trump weren’t in the race, compared with 8% of those backing someone other than him.
Tracking the Popularity of Potential 2024 Primary Candidates
Latest survey conducted Dec. 1-3, 2023, among 836 potential Republican primary voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. Net favorability is the share of potential Republican primary voters with favorable views of a candidate minus the share with unfavorable views.
- Trump is popular with 76% of the party’s potential electorate, while 23% view him unfavorably.
- DeSantis has seen a bit of a popularity decline after several weeks in which his net favorability increased. The latest survey shows 62% with favorable views and 23% with unfavorable views of him, marking a 9-point net drop over the past week.
The Buzz About the 2024 Republican Presidential Primary
Latest survey conducted Dec. 1-3, 2023, among 836 potential Republican primary voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. Net buzz is the share of potential Republican primary voters who heard something positive over the previous week about a candidate minus the share who heard something negative.
- Potential GOP voters were 11 points more likely to report having recently heard something positive than negative about Trump (43% to 32%), while 25% said they didn’t hear anything about him.
- Large chunks of primary voters reported recently hearing nothing about DeSantis (42%) or Haley (52%) as the two candidates vie for the No. 2 spot in the contest.
Source of This Data
Methodology
The latest national results on questions pertaining to 2024 Republican presidential primary first choice, second choice and hypothetical general-election matchups reflect surveys conducted Dec. 1-3, 2023. The first- and second-choice results reflect responses among 3,526 potential Republican primary voters. Our sample of potential Republican primary voters includes any registered voter who said they plan to vote in the Republican presidential primary or caucus in their state in 2024.
Potential Republican primary voters who initially said they did not know or had no opinion about which candidate they plan to vote for were asked to pick a candidate they are leaning toward. The results reflecting each candidate’s 2024 Republican primary support include the responses from these “leaners.”
Morning Consult’s reported results on questions pertaining to candidate favorability and buzz reflect data gathered on a weekly basis among roughly 800 potential Republican primary voters. For more information on our 2024 methodology, see here.
About Morning Consult
Morning Consult is a global decision intelligence company changing how modern leaders make smarter, faster, better decisions. The company pairs its proprietary high-frequency data with applied artificial intelligence to better inform decisions on what people think and how they will act. Learn more at morningconsult.com.
Eli Yokley is Morning Consult’s U.S. politics analyst. Eli joined Morning Consult in 2016 from Roll Call, where he reported on House and Senate campaigns after five years of covering state-level politics in the Show Me State while studying at the University of Missouri in Columbia, including contributions to The New York Times, Politico and The Daily Beast. Follow him on Twitter @eyokley. Interested in connecting with Eli to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
