Tracking the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
Latest surveys conducted Sept. 27-29, 2024, among 11,381 likely voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-1 percentage point. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Ahead of the 2024 presidential election, Morning Consult is conducting thousands of surveys every day, asking U.S. voters if they plan to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump in November, as well as how they view these candidates and other top political figures. Our ongoing candidate tracking is complemented by daily tracking of the issues voters consider most important when making their decisions at the ballot box, whom they trust most to handle those issues and the extent to which media coverage of those issues is reaching them.
Every week, we’ll update this page with the latest tracking data on all of the major questions heading into the 2024 general election. For our latest state-level tracking of the race in 14 states, as well as key Senate and gubernatorial contests, see here.
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Key Takeaways
Harris leads Trump: Harris leads Trump by 5 percentage points among likely voters, 51% to 46%, matching her advantage last week. Trump has seen a bit of an improvement in his numbers among independent likely voters, while Harris’ position is bolstered by some of her best numbers to date among those who voted for President Joe Biden in the 2020 election.
Walz maintains popularity edge ahead of VP debate: Gov. Tim Walz (D-Minn.) remains more popular than Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), 45% to 39%, as the two vice presidential nominees prepare to face off in their only debate. Walz has consistently been more popular than Vance since their respective campaign launches, in part because voters continue to be more likely to report hearing something positive than negative about the second-term governor.
Our latest swing-state surveys for Bloomberg News: Harris leads Trump in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while the two are tied in Georgia, all inside our latest swing-state surveys’ margins of error. In the 2024 battleground, Harris has widened her trust advantage over Trump on the cost of health care and housing and largely erased his lead on the cost of living and the availability of good jobs.
Data Downloads
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Tracking 2024 Presidential Vote Choice Over Time
Data points reflect a three-day moving average of surveys conducted among at least 4,000 registered U.S. voters, with unweighted margins of +/-1 to 2 percentage points. Data points prior to Sep. 4 show results among registered voters, while those on and after that date reflect likely voters.
- Harris began her campaign with more support than Biden ever received from the national electorate this cycle.
- Harris’ entry into the race reduced the appetite for a protest vote: Fewer voters became uncertain about their vote or planned to opt for someone else with her on the ballot.
- Likely voters are even less likely than registered voters to be unsure of how they'll vote or to say they'll back a third-party option.
Tracking Politicians' Popularity
Latest survey conducted Sept. 27-29, 2024, among 2,121 likely U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Net favorability is the share of potential voters with favorable views minus the share with unfavorable views.
- Before she ascended to the top of the ticket, sentiment about Harris had tracked closely with views about Biden. But since securing presumptive status as the Democratic presidential nominee, Harris has become significantly more popular than Biden, Trump and her party’s brand on Capitol Hill.
- For most of this election cycle, Democrats in Congress have managed to maintain a consistent edge in popularity over their Republican counterparts.
Tracking the Buzz About Politicians
Latest survey conducted Sept. 27-29, 2024, among 2,121 likely U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Net buzz is the share of voters who heard something positive minus the share who heard something negative.
- The kind of information voters heard about Harris previously tracked with what they were hearing about Biden, but it’s been a different story since she became the Democratic nominee: Her net buzz rating now exceeds Trump’s and Biden’s by double digits.
- Voters have been more likely to say they’re hearing good things about Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz than Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance.
- Fewer voters said they’ve heard about members of Congress, though once again, it’s the GOP that tends to generate more negative coverage.
- The tenor of coverage about Biden has improved drastically since he announced his decision on July 21 not to seek re-election this year.
Tracking 2024’s Top Issues
Latest survey conducted Sept. 27-29, 2024, among 2,121 likely U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points.
- The issue portfolio for the November elections largely echoes that of the 2022 midterms. The economy is voters’ top issue, followed by national security and health care — and hot-button issues such as crime and abortion occupy similar places in voters’ minds. But it’s a different story with regard to immigration. More than 3 in 5 voters (67%) now say it’s “very important” to their vote in November, compared with 50% who said it was very important to their vote in November 2022.
Tracking the Buzz About 2024's Top Issues
Latest survey conducted Sept. 27-29, 2024, among 2,121 likely U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Net buzz is the share of voters who heard something positive minus the share who heard something negative.
- The tenor of media coverage about the economy, jobs, and crime have improved, albeit unevenly, over the course of this election cycle.
- Meanwhile, the tone of coverage about immigration has remained overwhelmingly negative.
Congressional Trust on Handling of 2024's Top Issues
Latest survey conducted Sept. 27-29, 2024, among 2,121 likely U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. Numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
- Similar to the run-up to the 2022 midterms, Republicans are more favored than Democrats to handle the economy, national security, crime and immigration. Democrats maintain their trust advantages on health care, entitlement programs, climate change and abortion.
Source of This Data
Methodology
The latest national results on the general-election matchup of Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump reflect surveys conducted Sept. 27-29, 2024, among 11,381 likely U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-1 percentage point. Results from surveys that concluded prior to Sept. 4, 2024, are among registered U.S. voters — not likely voters.
Results do not include responses among voters who were initially undecided and were asked to pick which candidate they are leaning toward. Our likely voter criteria includes any registered voters who say they are highly likely to vote in the November 2024 general election. The scale of our likely voter filter question ranges from 1-10, where “1” means an individual will definitely not vote in the November 2024 presidential election and “10” means an individual will definitely vote in November. Respondents who answer that they are an “8” or higher are deemed likely voters.
Morning Consult’s latest reported results on questions pertaining to candidate favorability and buzz, issue prioritization and buzz, and congressional issue trust reflect data gathered on a weekly basis among roughly 2,000 likely U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. Results from weekly surveys that concluded prior to Sept. 1, 2024, are among registered voters — not likely voters. For more information on our 2024 methodology, see here.
About Morning Consult
Morning Consult is a global decision intelligence company changing how modern leaders make smarter, faster, better decisions. The company pairs its proprietary high-frequency data with applied artificial intelligence to better inform decisions on what people think and how they will act. Learn more at morningconsult.com.
Cameron Easley is Morning Consult’s lead analyst for U.S. politics. Prior to moving into his current role, he led Morning Consult's editorial coverage of U.S. politics and elections from 2016 through 2022. Cameron joined Morning Consult from Roll Call, where he was managing editor. He graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Follow him on Twitter @cameron_easley. Interested in connecting with Cameron to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
Eli Yokley is Morning Consult’s U.S. politics analyst. Eli joined Morning Consult in 2016 from Roll Call, where he reported on House and Senate campaigns after five years of covering state-level politics in the Show Me State while studying at the University of Missouri in Columbia, including contributions to The New York Times, Politico and The Daily Beast. Follow him on Twitter @eyokley. Interested in connecting with Eli to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
