Harris Leads Trump Among Likely Voters in 6 Swing States

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Vice President Kamala Harris holds narrow leads across most of the swing-state map, according to our first look at likely voters in Morning Consult’s monthly survey on behalf of Bloomberg News.

Our latest polling, conducted Sept. 19-25, shows the Democratic nominee leading former President Donald Trump in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while the two are tied in Georgia. All of the findings are inside the surveys’ margins of error, reflecting the tightness of the contest with just over a month to go until Election Day.

In each of the seven states, our surveys show Harris performing slightly better with President Joe Biden’s 2020 backers than Trump is with his own supporters from four years ago, mirroring the findings of our daily tracking at the national level.

The race looks similar among all registered voters across the swing-state map, with Harris holding marginal leads over Trump in each of the states (including Georgia), and her popularity has ticked up above water for the first time in the seven-state aggregate — besting sentiment about Trump.

Swing-state economic policy views 

As voters across the swing states continue to elevate economic issues as their top concern when thinking about their votes this year, the cost of everyday goods reigns supreme. However, it’s not alone on voters’ lists of economic concerns as Harris works to gain their trust on the electorate’s No. 1 issue.

In an aggregate look across the seven states, 2 in 3 voters selected the cost of everyday goods as among their top three economic concerns, followed by the cost of health care (33%), housing (29%) and everyday services (29%). The housing issue is slightly elevated in Nevada (at 39%), while health care carries extra weight in Michigan and Wisconsin (36%) and everyday services draws outsized attention in Pennsylvania (36%).

On almost all of these issues, Harris has gained trust among the likely swing-state electorate since launching her campaign.

According to our September survey, Harris has widened her trust advantage over Trump on the cost of housing and health care, largely erased his lead when it comes to the cost of living (covering everyday goods and services) and the availability of good jobs, and overtaken him on taxes — all while posting better numbers on the matters than Biden ever did during his now-abandoned 2024 campaign. The movement was similar among the larger swing-state electorate.

As she looks to cast herself as an economic pragmatist, Harris has narrowed Trump’s trust advantage on the economy overall: The latest survey shows 45% trust her more to handle the economy (up from 43% in August), while 49% trust Trump more (down from 51%). And at the same time, a number of her proposed economic policies have majority support in this year’s most decisive states.

Four in 5 likely swing-state voters (80%) back Harris’ proposed federal ban on price gouging for groceries that came in response to heightened food costs, slightly higher than the 77% who support her ban on corporate landlords buying up single-family homes or the 68% who back more down-payment assistance for first-time home buyers as an answer to the electorate’s concerns about housing costs. 

Trump’s tax policy proposals, such as eliminating federal taxes on Social Security benefits and overtime, also boast wide majority support, as does his idea — embraced by Harris — to eliminate Washington’s levies on tipped income, while his proposed universal 10% tariffs on all imports has relatively weak backing (at 52%).

In each of the seven states, roughly half of voters back raising the cap for state and local tax deductions, a top priority in the pending tax debate for lawmakers from richer, larger states that are unlikely to be decisive for control of the White House this year. 

The bottom line

Harris’ standing at the swing-state level suggests she has the advantage heading into the home-stretch of the campaign, similar to our findings at the national level. Still, she likely needs to increase her support among key groups where she has room to grow such as independent voters (especially independent men), the youngest in the electorate and lesser-earners — especially if Trump is able to shift the pool of Americans likely to cast ballots in November in his own favor.

Her biggest advantage at both the state and national levels is her popularity over Trump, allowing her to at least start the conversation with voters who will decide this year’s election. The coming weeks will reveal just how far that can go in terms of gaining voters’ trust to handle the major issues they face, but the popularity of her policies give her a fighting chance.