Morning Consult | Bloomberg News Survey: Biden’s and Trump’s Ballot Performance as of February 2024
Decision intelligence company Morning Consult, on behalf of Bloomberg News, is conducting a monthly seven-state study in 2024 political swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) to uncover where voters stand on key issues surrounding the presidential election.
The findings below reflect data at the state level for the fourth wave of this study. Also see results from the first (Oct. 5-10), second (Oct. 30-Nov. 7) third (Nov. 27-Dec. 6) and fourth waves (Jan. 16-22).
Key Takeaways
Donald Trump holds leads over Joe Biden in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The former president’s lead is narrowest in the upper-midwest, where Wisconsin and Michigan voters are almost evenly split between the two.
Overall, eight in 10 swing-state voters said Biden was too old to be president. Trump faces his own vulnerabilities, with a majority saying the GOP frontrunner is “dangerous”.
Immigration is rising as a key voting issue. While 35% of voters said the economy is the single most important issue, the share of voters citing immigration has increased from 9% to 16% since October.
Data Downloads
To look at the full list of questions and responses by voters in each swing state, download the data files above.
Methodology
The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll surveyed 4,955 registered voters in seven swing states: 798 registered voters in Arizona, 800 in Georgia, 702 in Michigan, 445 in Nevada, 705 in North Carolina, 803 in Pennsylvania and 702 in Wisconsin. The surveys were conducted online from Feb. 12 to 20 and the aggregated data across the seven swing states were weighted to approximate a target sample of swing state registered voters based on gender, age, race/ethnicity, marital status, home ownership, 2020 presidential vote and state. State-level data were weighted to approximate a target sample of registered voters in the respective state based on gender, age, race/ethnicity, marital status, home ownership, and 2020 presidential vote. The margin of error is plus or minus 1 percentage point across the seven states; 3 percentage points in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania; 4 percentage points in Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, and 5 percentage points in Nevada.
Interested in connecting with a member of the Morning Consult team regarding our recent data and analysis? Email [email protected].
