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Morning Consult | Bloomberg News Survey: Biden’s and Trump’s Ballot Performance as of January 2024

Biden trails Trump in all seven swing states.
Morning Consult / Bloomberg / artwork by Kelly Rice
By Press
January 31, 2024 at 4:00 am UTC

Decision intelligence company Morning Consult, on behalf of Bloomberg News, is conducting a monthly seven-state study in 2024 political swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) to uncover where voters stand on key issues surrounding the presidential election. 

The findings below reflect data at the state level for the fourth wave of this study. Also see results from the first (Oct. 5-10), second (Oct. 30-Nov. 7) and third waves (Nov. 27-Dec. 6).

Key Takeaways

  • President Joe Biden's ballot challenges continue as he now trails former President Donald Trump in all seven swing states. Coming out of the Iowa Republican primary, Trump strengthened his standing in the head-to-head ballot against Biden. Trump leads Biden in all seven swing states.

  • The preference for immigration as a top issue was most pronounced among Trump voters — and particularly Republican men. Among voters aged 65 and older, the economy and immigration are now tied for the top issue.

  • Fentanyl misuse is an important but not key issue for voters in 2024. Three-in-four (77%) of swing state voters view fentanyl misuse as an important issue when deciding who to vote for in the 2024 election for U.S. president, in line with issues like U.S.-China relations (78%) and guns (77%).

  • To see what voters in each swing state are prioritizing on the 2024 ballot and their trust in Biden vs. Trump to handle each issue, download the data files below.

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To look at the full list of questions and responses by voters in each swing state, download the data files above.

Methodology

This survey, which identifies key issues in the 2024 election and measures how much swing state voters trust Biden vs. Trump on these issues and how Biden vs. Trump perform on swing state ballots, was conducted from Jan. 16-22, 2024, among a sample of 4,956 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The interviews were conducted online, and the data was weighted to approximate a target sample of registered voters based on gender, age, race/ethnicity, marital status, home ownership, 2020 presidential vote, and state. Results from the surveys have a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage points.

Interested in connecting with a member of the Morning Consult team regarding our recent data and analysis? Email [email protected].

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