EMEA: Leader Approval & Country Trajectory Outlook, Oct 2023

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France

Like most European leaders over recent years, Prime Minister Emmanuel Macron’s net approval has been underwater for the duration of his tenure. There is plenty of time for a rebound to benefit Macron’s Renaissance party before general elections in 2027. Macron himself is precluded from seeking another term.

Macron’s net approval saw a bump at the beginning of COVID-19 pandemic, lasting through 2020 and 2021. His net approval began to slide in the second half of 2022, and it dropped sharply in mid-March during government efforts to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64. French adults took to the street in anger, but Macron and his government refused to back down, and the reforms took effect in April. In late June, France was wracked by protests once again, this time decrying the police killing of a young delivery driver during a traffic stop. 

While both incidents sparked a steep near-term drop in the net share of French adults who say the country is headed in the right direction, Macron’s approval dropped much less after the second wave of protests than the first, indicating there was less blame assigned to him personally for that particular perceived government failure. 

Due to the length of his tenure and multiple periods of unrest, we expect Macron’s approval rating to stagnate slightly above tracking lows observed over his tenure.

Germany

Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s net approval rating has never again reached the heights it hit immediately following his swearing in on Dec. 8, 2021. He received a boost following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, particularly after his much-lauded speech announcing a German foreign policy “Zeitenwende” or turning point. 

The rally proved temporary, however: Both of our metrics of government approval — net leader approval and country trajectory — bottomed out in fall of 2022 during the worst energy crisis in Germany’s post-war history. As gas prices moderated in September and October 2022 due to lower than expected global demand and a mild winter, sentiment rebounded to higher (but still net negative) levels in spring and early summer 2023. Public opinion has begun to slide again in the face of another possible gas price spike. 

Amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding the stability of Scholz’s “traffic light” coalition and a strong right-wing performance in local elections earlier this month, we see limited prospects for a strong rebound in either approval metric.

United Kingdom

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s net approval rating has never reached net-positive territory during his time in office. Nevertheless, he easily outperforms his predecessor Liz Truss, who was the United Kingdom’s shortest-serving prime minister and clocked one of our lowest-ever approval ratings just prior to her resignation. The unfulfilled optimism of the day Truss took office can be seen in a jump in the net share of U.K. adults who said they thought the country was headed in the right direction, and their subsequent disillusionment with her “mini-budget.” The disastrous market results of Truss’ budget is reflected in a sharp drop in our country trajectory metric, which is currently hovering around minus 50 percentage points despite a near-term rebound. 

Elections must take place by January 2025, but Sunak can call them earlier if he sees an advantage for his Conservative Party. Our view is that Sunak’s current low approval ratings means it’s unlikely he will call elections in the very near term. We advise clients to continue monitoring these metrics as indicators of when Sunak and the Tories might see a favorable window to hold elections. 

Election Watch: The Netherlands, Poland and Switzerland

The Netherlands 

Prime Minister Mark Rutte is the longest-serving prime minister in Dutch history, having first taken office in 2010. The current government (his fourth) fell this July in the wake of major disagreements over family reunification and immigration. He announced in July 2023 that he would retire from politics after the upcoming general election on Nov. 22. 

Even by European standards, the level of public dissatisfaction with Dutch politics is high at present, with the net share of Dutch adults who say their country is headed in the right direction hovering at between minus 50 and minus 60 points. This helps explain the proliferation of newer parties purporting to offer change, like the Farmer Citizen Movement, which was founded in 2019 in response to farmers’ protests, or the New Social Contract, which was founded as an offshoot of the Christian Democratic Appeal. These protest parties appear to be attracting significant support, and could be in the driver’s seat come Election Day. 

Both our leader approval and country trajectory metrics remain pinned near H2 2023 lows at present and show relatively marked volatility compared with the first half of the year. Given recent political instability, we predict continued volatility in the leadup to the elections.

Poland 

Both Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki’s net approval rating and the net share of Poles who say their country is headed in the right direction increased significantly throughout late 2022 and 2023, but those figures remain in solidly negative territory. The improvement in both metrics was not enough to hand national parliamentary elections on Oct. 15 to the incumbent Law and Justice party, despite them receiving the largest single share of votes. 

The Polish opposition has declared victory after three left-leaning coalitions (Civic Coalition, Third Way, and the Left) gained enough votes to have a combined majority in the Sejm, or the lower house of Polish parliament (248 of 460 seats). Because the incumbent Law and Justice received the most votes of any single party, it has the first chance at forming a government. But it is almost certain to come up short even if nationalist libertarian Konfederacja agrees to join a Law and Justice-led coalition. Konfederacja received only 7.16% of the vote (we measured their support at 7.8% in pooled daily surveys among 3,001 Polish adults from Sept. 18-Oct. 1). If Law and Justice fails to form a government, Civic Coalition will get a bite at the apple. Our view is that these dynamics make for a somewhat protracted government formation process. 

That said, we expect improved relations with the European Union under a Civic Coalition-led government, including the thawing of disputes over judiciary reforms widely viewed as anti-democratic, and overtures to Ukraine to mend fences after grain exports became an election issue. Do not expect reversals of major social spending initiatives like Law and Justice’s “500+” child benefit program, which has proven extremely popular.

Switzerland 

Compared with their neighbors included in this brief, Swiss adults express a high degree of satisfaction with their chief executive and the general direction of their country. Two-time President Alain Berset announced in June that he would step down from his post and leave the cabinet after 11 years. His net approval spiked after the announcement, though it has since returned to previous levels of around 25 points. 

Switzerland held federal elections on Oct. 22 to elect all members of the National Council and Council of States (the lower and upper houses of the Federal Assembly). As expected, the right-wing Swiss People’s Party made gains on the back of public concerns about immigration and anger over the Crédit Suisse fallout with 29.1% of the vote (we measured their support at 28.7% in pooled daily surveys among  1232 Swiss adults from Oct. 1-15). The results of these elections will reverberate when the Federal Assembly votes on Federal Council seats on Dec. 13. 

Methodology

Morning Consult conducts thousands of daily interviews on key political issues across 43 countries, making our unified data set on political attitudes — Morning Consult Political Intelligence — the largest globally. Every day, we gauge public opinion on world leaders, international organizations, policy issues and other countries to provide customers with data at the scale and speed needed to navigate the changing global political landscape in real time. Daily historical data is available for up to 6 years. For more information on average daily sample sizes, target populations, and more, see our MCPI methodology primer here.