U.S.-China Relations Tracker
Against the backdrop of a multiyear trade war, heightened screening of cross-border investments, and persistent tensions over the South China Sea and Taiwan, Morning Consult’s U.S.-China Relations Tracker provides data-driven insights into Americans’ perceptions of bilateral relations and their views on key business, regulatory, and policy issues, broken out by party affiliation. The tracker is anchored by Morning Consult's “U.S.-China Fear Gauge,” which provides a holistic measure of Americans’ concern about the trajectory of bilateral relations.
For U.S. and global multinationals, the tracker is intended to help government affairs, public policy, and risk management teams better understand the depth of Americans’ concerns about bilateral relations and their views on key policy issues in order to inform data-driven scenario planning and policy advocacy. For U.S. and global asset managers, the tracker is intended to provide data-driven inputs into investment strategies and facilitate the pricing of risks arising from U.S.-China competition.
The tracker updates quarterly. The latest data is from August 2024.
Key Takeaways
A majority of U.S. adults across the partisan divide are concerned about the trajectory of U.S.-China relations, per our latest U.S.-China Fear Gauge readings.
Trade relations, and tariffs specifically, remain the most pressing issue to address in bilateral relations for U.S. adults of all political stripes, followed by concerns surrounding Chinese theft of intellectual property from U.S. entities.
While U.S. adults are keen on resolving the ongoing trade war, majorities of self-identified Democrats and Republicans support keeping the existing tariffs on China in place, and have done so consistently over roughly the past two years. We see limited tariff relief on the horizon in light of these trends and broader U.S. electoral dynamics pushing in the direction of stable if not expanded tariffs.
U.S. adults remain broadly open to inbound Chinese investment despite elevated bilateral tensions and favor more limited national security bans over outright bans on Chinese stateside business activity. Accordingly, we expect the next U.S. administration to face limited public pushback against efforts to ring-fence foreign investments in sensitive sectors, albeit subject to the risk of a wider yard.
U.S. adults are broadly supportive of greater restrictions on U.S. firms’ ability to do business in China, including notification and screening requirements for China-bound investments and bans on such activities when they involve the transfer or usage of advanced technology. U.S. multinationals who anticipate making such investments should prepare for near-term public reputational risks should their investments proceed. The same is true for U.S. firms exporting sensitive technology to China.
Data Downloads
Pro+ subscribers are able to download the datasets that underpin Morning Consult Pro's reports and analysis. Contact us to get access.
U.S.-China Fear Gauge
Morning Consult’s U.S.-China Fear Gauge is a cross-cutting index measuring the degree of Americans’ concerns about the trajectory of bilateral relations. The index is constructed as a simple average of five data series assessing public concern about economic and military tensions, and views of China as an enemy/unfriendly nation, as described in the table below. Trended data for each of the index’s component series is available via the Data Downloads section above.
Index Components and Weights
U.S.-China Fear Gauge: Trends by demographic
Index of Americans’ concerns about the trajectory of U.S.-China relations
Most Pressing Policy Issues
Morning Consult tracks Americans’ views on the most important issues to resolve in bilateral relations on a forward-looking basis. The chart below provides our latest read on Americans’ sense of which issues warrant resolution.
Americans’ assessments of the most pressing policy issues to resolve in bilateral relations
Trade & Tariffs
Morning Consult tracks Americans’ views on trade policy and tariffs involving imports from China on an ongoing basis. The charts below provide our latest read on American sentiment on the matter.
Americans’ support for existing tariffs on China
Inbound Investment
Morning Consult tracks Americans’ sentiment on inbound investment by Chinese firms in the context of prevailing national security concerns on an ongoing basis. The charts below provide our latest read on Americans’ views on the matter.
Americans’ support for banning Chinese companies from doing business in the United States
Americans’ support for banning Chinese companies from owning and/or acquiring U.S. companies
Outbound Investment & Exports
Morning Consult tracks Americans’ views on business and regulatory issues related to outbound investment by U.S. firms and American exports — both destined for China — on an ongoing basis. The charts below provide our latest read on American sentiment on related policy issues.
Americans’ support for outbound investment notification requirements
Americans’ support for banning U.S. companies from investing in China
Americans’ support for banning U.S. companies from exporting to China
Companion Research & Analysis
- U.S. Foreign Policy Tracker: Morning Consult's U.S. Foreign Policy Tracker situates Americans' concerns about U.S.-China relations in the context of other major foreign policy issues. Updates are published quarterly on the same cadence as the U.S.-China Relations Tracker.
- Counter/Consensus Email Briefing: Morning Consult's Counter/Consensus newsletter is a biweekly, publicly available briefing that provides pithy, empirically-grounded forecasts derived from our political data assets, and frequently touches on key issues in U.S.-China relations.
Companion Data Assets for Pro+ Subscribers
- Trended Data: Trended component data for the U.S.-China Fear Gauge and all other data featured in this tracker among select demographics is available for Morning Consult Pro+ subscribers via the “Data Downloads” section of this page. See “Commercial Data Access” below for additional details on access to demographic data beyond that presented in this tracker and companion data file.
Supplementary Commercial Data Access
- All data featured in this tracker derives from a larger monthly tracking survey fielded in the United States and China from February 2022 onwards, with broader topical and demographic coverage available for enterprise or public sector use. Contact us with inquiries regarding commercial access.
Methodology
Data featured in this tracker derives from monthly surveys conducted among representative samples of roughly 1,000 U.S. adults, each with an unweighted margin of error or +/-3 percentage points. The survey began fielding in February 2022 and fields during the first half of the month.
All data was collected through Morning Consult’s proprietary survey research capabilities. All interviews are conducted online. Data is weighted to approximate representative samples of U.S. adults. All references to “Americans” throughout this tracker refer to the aforementioned sample.
Consult our Global Political Intelligence Methodology Primer for additional details on sampling and data collection procedures, weighting and representativeness, margins of error, and question wording for this survey and our broader Political Intelligence data product.
About Morning Consult
Morning Consult is a global decision intelligence company changing how modern leaders make smarter, faster, better decisions. The company pairs its proprietary high-frequency data with applied artificial intelligence to better inform decisions on what people think and how they will act. Learn more at morningconsult.com.
Email [email protected] to speak with a member of the Morning Consult team.
Jason I. McMann leads geopolitical risk analysis at Morning Consult. He leverages the company’s high-frequency survey data to advise clients on how to integrate geopolitical risk into their decision-making. Jason previously served as head of analytics at GeoQuant (now part of Fitch Solutions). He holds a Ph.D. from Princeton University’s Politics Department. Follow him on Twitter @jimcmann. Interested in connecting with Jason to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
