Counter/Consensus: Canadian Consumers Punish U.S. Brands, Russians Warm to the U.S. Amid Negotiations, and Romania's Right Wing Looks Strong Heading into the Repeat Presidential Election

1. Canada (Consensus)

We stand on guard for thee. Trump’s tariff threats and repeated calls for Canada to become the “51st state” have angered the Canadian public, sparking demonstrations of anti-American sentiment that include calls to boycott consumer-facing U.S. brands.

Net favorability of the United States among Canadian adults dropped around 10 points in the days immediately following Trump’s election victory. It then remained stable through the period before Trump took office on Jan. 19, with Canadians taking a wait-and-see approach. But on Jan. 21, Trump said he would in fact follow through on his earlier tariff threats. We have since seen Canadian favorability of the United States fall off a proverbial cliff. 

Canadians have been finding ways to express their displeasure: They have booed “The Star Spangled Banner” at sporting events and some have forestalled travel plans to the United States. Others have urged their compatriots to “Buy Canadian” and boycott U.S. goods.

To see whether worsening bilateral relations are taking a toll on U.S. brands’ likely earnings, we looked at changes in net purchasing consideration among Canadian adults between the second week of January and the second week of February (bookending the tariff threat), and found that 52 U.S. brands — almost 70% of the total brands we examined — saw a decline, with 7 brands seeing declines of over 10 points. No brand saw an increase over 10 percentage points. And it is crucial to note that 30% of the brands saw no change or slight increases in purchasing consideration. Brands’ all-important idiosyncratic qualities like price, quality, ongoing advertising campaigns and other factors primarily drive purchasing consideration, and we did not control for any of those variables here. 

However, looking at the timing in the decline of purchasing consideration after months of stability for many of these brands makes a compelling case for the influence of U.S.-Canada relations on purchasing consideration in recent months, to the potential detriment of U.S. companies. 

The tariff threat is far from over. President Trump also reiterated as recently as Feb. 10 his conviction that Canada should be the 51st state, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was caught on a hot mic saying Trump was “serious” about his threats. All of this makes a swift mending of fences unlikely. 

Emphasizing strong ties to Canada is a critical part of any communication strategy for consumer-facing brands in Canada right now, and could motivate consumers to think twice before engaging in boycotts. Many companies have room to leverage other messaging strategies — such as those around product pricing and quality — to potentially offset risks arising from worsening views of America. 

Companies with business operations in Canada amid the current sparring can consult our recommendations here. For those seeking more holistic recommendations around positioning your brand relative to your country of origin, see our Country Affinity Playbook.

2.  Russia (Consensus)

Bear with us. Nearly three years after Russia invaded Ukraine, the Trump administration is pursuing a negotiated settlement to end the war and a rapid thaw in relations more broadly, both on display this week during high-level bilateral meetings hosted by Saudi Arabia.

On both fronts, our data indicates the Russian public is warming to the idea. Net favorability toward the United States among Russian adults — which measures the share holding favorable views of it minus the share holding unfavorable ones — has been on a sharp upswing since Feb. 12, when the Trump administration announced that Trump himself held a “lengthy and highly productive” phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

While Russian sentiment remains depressed relative to the pre-war period, it has regained roughly half of the ground lost over the previous three years in merely a week, in a nod to how fast developments are moving. The declining share of Russian adults holding “very unfavorable” views of the United States is the primary driver, offset by similarly sized increases in the shares holding “very” or “somewhat” favorable views of it. Here it’s worth nothing that the aforementioned Trump-Putin call also comes amid a recent plateau in Russian consumer confidence — per our data, the first since the war began — suggesting that with sanctions relief potentially on the table as part of a future deal, the timing of the thaw in relations proposed by the Trump administration couldn’t be better for Russia, a fact that may also be playing into the overall uptick in Russian sentiment.

The feeling is largely — but not entirely — mutual. Among U.S. adults, net favorability toward Russia has rebounded gradually since shortly after the war began, such that sentiment is now on par with levels observed just prior to the war’s outbreak. But we have not seen an outsized rebound over the past few weeks, as we have in Russia.

Americans’ views on the contours of a negotiated settlement offer a potential explanation: While Americans are increasingly bullish on a swift end to the war, as of late January, a plurality of U.S. voters across the partisan aisle oppose forcing Ukraine into territorial concessions as part of the solution. Yet recent accounts suggest this would likely come to pass as part of any negotiated outcome. At the same time, Ukraine is not an issue of paramount importance to U.S. voters, per our U.S. Foreign Policy Tracker, so Trump will likely have relatively free rein with his domestic audience to manage the issue as he sees fit. 

For U.S. companies keeping an eye on the rapidly progressing negotiations — and specifically for those thinking through what an end to the conflict could mean for their prospects of regaining a foothold in the Russian market — improving Russian sentiment toward the United States is a positive sign, in light of our earlier work showing a strong relationship between views of U.S. companies and of the country itself amid the war’s onset. While U.S. sentiment has not benefited from the same near-term rebound as Russian sentiment, the fact that views of Russia have now returned to prewar levels suggests that American multinationals’ domestic stakeholders (i.e. U.S. consumers) may not be especially miffed about their future decisions to re-enter the market, even if they hold misgivings about the territorial underpinning of a future peace agreement.

3. Romania (Counter)

Right-wing redux. JD Vance brought attention to the Romanian elections in his bombshell of a speech at the Munich Security Conference late last week, blasting the European Union for its “undemocratic” annulment of the first round presidential election. The thing is, many Romanians seem to agree. 

In the initial round of Romania’s presidential election on Nov. 24, 2024, far-right candidate Călin Georgescu, known for his pro-Russian stance and criticism of NATO, secured an unexpected lead with 23% of the vote. This outcome prompted concerns about foreign interference, particularly through social media platforms like TikTok.

On Dec. 6, 2024, Romania’s Constitutional Court annulled the election results, citing evidence of Russian meddling, including cyberattacks and coordinated online campaigns aimed at bolstering Georgescu’s candidacy. This decision led to widespread protests demanding the continuation of the electoral process. In the aftermath, President Klaus Iohannis, who had completed his maximum two terms, faced mounting pressure from far-right opposition groups and the threat of impeachment. He resigned on Feb. 10 and Senate President Ilie Bolojan has assumed the role of interim president until a new election can be conducted. 

Romanians do not seem encouraged by the resignation. Their pessimism over the trajectory of their country remains below -50, and has seen no obvious rebound in recent days.

More likely than not, they are in wait-and-see mode until after the election. The rerun of the presidential election is scheduled for May 4, 2025, with a potential runoff on May 18 if no candidate achieves an absolute majority. 

We previously noted that the electoral mulligan will almost certainly not have the intended effect. We still hold that view looking at the current data. Disenchanted Romanians who previously said no party reflected their views first seemed to shift primarily to the far-right AUR party after its strong showing in the country’s parliamentary elections. The share of voters saying no party reflected their views then jumped back up, but mostly at the expense of the center left Social Democratic Party (PSD).

While these numbers reflect general preferences rather than voting intention and are among a general rather than likely voter population, it’s telling that right-wing AUD is now appealing to more Romanians than PSD. 

It remains uncertain whether Georgescu will be permitted to participate in the upcoming election. But far-right AUR also fielded a presidential candidate, George Simion, who came in third with a little over 14% of the vote. Should Georgescu’s supporters shift to Simion, he would handily defeat second-place Elena Lasconi of the center-right Save Romania Union party (USR).

For those keeping an eye on things in the weeks and months ahead, you’ll find additional coverage of Romania in the February 2025 issuance of our Global Political Risk Ratings, which assigned the country a downside rating watch, reflecting rising political risk.